Rising geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran conflict could significantly increase India’s oil import costs and put pressure on the rupee, former NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant said, warning that energy security will remain a critical economic challenge for the country.
In a post on social media platform X, Kant, who currently serves as a senior adviser to global financial institutions including Fairfax Financial Holdings, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation and Warburg Pincus, said that every $10 per barrel rise in global crude oil prices could add $13–14 billion to India’s annual import bill, widen the current account deficit and weaken the rupee.
“Every $10 per barrel rise in crude prices can add $13–14B to India’s annual import bill, widen the current account deficit and pressure the rupee. Geopolitical shocks will keep testing our energy security,” Kant said.
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He emphasised that India’s next phase of energy transition must focus not just on expanding renewable capacity but also on ensuring reliable delivery of clean power.
“India’s next step isn’t just adding clean capacity but it’s delivering reliable clean power at home: high-PLF solar-wind hybrids, electric vehicle momentum, modern grids, large-scale batteries & pumped hydro storage, and firm low-carbon baseload like nuclear. We need it all,” he said.
Kant, a veteran bureaucrat and policy reformer, previously served as India’s G20 Sherpa and the chief executive officer of NITI Aayog, the government’s apex public policy think tank further said that the country must prioritise execution and reliability in its energy transition.
“Not just capacity. Delivery. Energy independence = economic resilience (sic),” he said.
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India imports more than 80% of its crude oil requirements, making the economy highly sensitive to global price fluctuations, particularly during geopolitical disruptions in major oil-producing regions.
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