Daily Briefing: A new Middle East? Trump’s deal faces tests and doubts

🚨 Big Story

A new Middle East?

The proposed US-Iran memorandum of understanding is being viewed as a potentially transformative moment for West Asian geopolitics, with supporters arguing that it could lay the groundwork for a more stable regional order after decades of confrontation. Going beyond the nuclear-focused framework of the 2015 Iran deal, the new agreement reportedly seeks to address broader issues including sanctions relief, regional security and the management of US-Iran tensions. However, the path ahead remains uncertain, with the deal facing resistance from multiple quarters and key details yet to be made public. Analysts warn that implementation will be challenging and that the next 60 days could prove critical in determining whether the agreement becomes the foundation of a “new Middle East” or joins a long list of failed attempts to reshape the region.

“Iran agreed to never have a Nuclear Weapon!”

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has asserted that Iran has agreed to permanently forgo nuclear weapons as part of the emerging US-Iran peace framework, while dismissing reports that Tehran would receive a $300 billion reconstruction package as “fake news”. The disagreement over the alleged fund has highlighted the lack of clarity surrounding key aspects of the proposed deal, which is expected to cover Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. While reports suggest Iran could gain access to significant investment linked to compliance with the agreement, US officials have maintained that any economic benefits would be conditional on Tehran meeting its commitments. With many details yet to be publicly disclosed, the framework continues to generate debate even as both Washington and Tehran portray it as a diplomatic breakthrough.

India Remains Cautious

While the US-Iran peace agreement has eased immediate fears of a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, India remains cautious as uncertainties surrounding energy supplies persist. The breakthrough has helped cool global oil prices and raised hopes of smoother maritime trade through one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. However, experts warn that the agreement’s long-term success will depend on its implementation and adherence by both sides. For India, which relies heavily on the Gulf region for crude oil, LNG and LPG imports, the stakes remain high. Although diversified sourcing has helped cushion the impact of the conflict, elevated energy prices and supply concerns could continue in the near term, with analysts suggesting it may take months for global markets to fully stabilise.

⚡ Only in Express

As the BJP’s political dominance continues to reshape India’s electoral landscape, a provocative question is resurfacing within Opposition circles: should parties that once broke away from the Congress find their way back? In her latest column, Neerja Chowdhury writes that Sharad Pawar’s recent remarks have rekindled debate over whether regional players such as the TMC and NCP, born out of Congress splits, can afford to remain independent as Opposition space shrinks. While any merger remains a distant prospect, complicated by competing ambitions, regional identities and organisational realities, the discussion itself signals a deeper anxiety within the Opposition about relevance, survival and the search for a more united front against the BJP.

📰 From the Front Page

Express Impact

NCERT has decided to restore the original image of the iconic Mohenjo-daro “Dancing Girl” in its new Class 9 Arts Education textbook, a day after The Indian Express reported that the Harappan-era bronze figurine’s bare torso had been digitally covered to make it appear clothed. Following the report and subsequent criticism from historians and archaeologists, the Education Ministry is learnt to have sought an explanation from NCERT, after which the body moved to reverse the decision. The original image will be restored immediately in the digital version of the textbook and in future print editions. The “Dancing Girl”, one of the most recognisable artefacts of the Indus Valley Civilisation, has featured in NCERT textbooks for at least 25 years without alteration, making the recent retouching an unprecedented departure from past practice.

Fake encounter claims: More than two months after 30-year-old Rashid Ahmad Mughal was killed in what the Army described as an encounter in the forests of Arhama village in Jammu and Kashmir’s Ganderbal district, his body has been exhumed and handed over to his family for burial. Mughal’s family has consistently maintained that he was an innocent civilian and not a militant, alleging that he was killed in a “fake gunfight”. The case had sparked political attention, with Chief Minister Omar Abdullah and PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti calling for an impartial investigation. The Jammu and Kashmir Home Department has since ordered a magisterial inquiry into the incident, while the family continues to seek answers over the circumstances surrounding Mughal’s death.

📌 Must Read

Sarpanch arrest row: The arrest and alleged manhandling of Odisha sarpanch Chameli Ojha has snowballed into a major political controversy, with the Opposition BJD and Congress accusing the BJP government of targeting a grassroots elected representative. Ojha, the sarpanch of Tikhari gram panchayat in Kendrapara district, was arrested following a confrontation with officials over the alleged stoppage of development funds for her panchayat. Videos showing her being carried by women constables from a hospital bed have triggered outrage, while her family has accused police of assault and harassment. Ojha has alleged that local BJP leaders and officials blocked funds and that she was threatened inside the block office, claims that have intensified calls for an impartial probe. The BJP government, however, faces competing allegations and counterclaims, with police accusing Ojha of assaulting personnel and citing multiple cases registered against her in the past.

Ready for polls?: The BJP has asked its units in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Goa to be prepared in case Assembly elections are advanced, with party sources citing the possibility of avoiding a scheduling overlap with the Census exercise due in early 2027. According to the report, the party is keen to maintain the momentum generated by its recent electoral successes, particularly in West Bengal, and has directed state leaders to speed up organisational and poll preparations. The BJP is also closely watching the Congress’s recent gains in the South and believes an early election could limit the Opposition party’s time to consolidate alliances and strengthen its campaign machinery.

⏳ And Finally…

Swedish Ambassador Jan Thesleff has said India and Europe share a relationship built on collaboration rather than a traditional buyer-seller dynamic, arguing that the two sides complement each other’s strengths in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment. In an interview with The Indian Express, Thesleff highlighted growing cooperation between India and Sweden in areas such as defence, innovation and technology, including plans for joint defence production in Haryana’s Jhajjar. Emphasising India’s rising global influence, the envoy said New Delhi has an important role to play in shaping solutions to international challenges, while deeper India-Europe partnerships can contribute to economic growth, security and technological advancement.

🎧Lastly, tune in to today’s 3 Things podcast. We unpack the controversy over a viral clip from comedian Pranit More’s show, examine Delhi’s worsening water crisis, and discuss the debate sparked by a digitally altered image of the Dancing Girl of Mohenjo-daro in an NCERT Class 9 textbook.

That’s all for today, folks! Until tomorrow, 

Anupama