By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
We have eight Mountain West teams in action this week across six games.
Four teams play conference games, with Hawaii visiting Wyoming in Larime and Air Force traveling to Nevada.
North Dakota State has a bye this week after opening the season 4-0 in their jump to FBS.
The hot start for the Bison make them the only program in the last 45 seasons to win its first four games as a fully fledged FBS team while scoring at least 30 points in each victory.
Quite impressive, but just one of a few accomplishments for Mountain West teams.
New Mexico travels to in-state rival New Mexico State this week, following a 14-6 defeat at Oklahoma.
The Sooners’ point total was the fewest allowed by a MW school on the road against a ranked Autonomous-4 opponent since TCU held Oklahoma to 10 points in 2005.
As the non-conference season winds down across the country, the Mountain West has more non-conference FBS victories than C-USA, MAC and the Pac-12.
Here is a look at the Mountain West games this week.
UNLV Rebels at Akron Zips
Saturday, Sept. 26
9:00 AM PT, ESPN+
Line: UNLV –13.5
Over/Under: 52.5
UNLV is coming off a bye that followed a tough loss to North Texas.
The Rebels should be sharp and ready to rebound. UNLV likes to go up-tempo, averaging 70.7 plays per game, among the Top 20 nationally in plays per game.
Coming off a bye will be big for the visitors traveling over half way across the country. Fresh bodies coupled with the pounding run game should favor the Rebels by a bunch.
Akron has gotten punished by opposing ground games in their two games this season against FBS competition, both double-digit losses to Power Four programs.
Against North Texas two weeks ago, the ground attack never got going for the Rebels. This week they should be able to run for 200+ and wear down the Zips defense.
Having Jackson Arnold as a threat to run the ball will also cause issues for the Akron defense. Against Wake in the opener, the Zips allowed QBs to scamper for 92 yards at 4.55 yards per tote.
Making matters worse for Akron in this one is they are banged up at the most important position. The Zips will turn to Brayden Roggow in this one after the starter Cibastian Broughton went out with a leg injury last week.
The redshirt freshman was third on the depth chart at the start of the year prior to injuries. If the Zips can’t sustain some drives on offense, it will tax their defense even more.
The Rebels will wear down Akron and win this one going away.
Winner: UNLV
ATS: UNLV
O/U: Under
NIU Huskies at Georgia State Panthers
Saturday, Sept. 26
11:00 AM PT, ESPN+
Line: Georgia State –10
Over/Under: 56.5
Northern Illinois has not looked good in their three games this season. Getting destroyed by both Iowa and Arizona as well as dropping one to FCS runner-up from last season Illinois State.
The Panthers, on the other hand, enter this one 2-1 with the lone loss by 14 at Central Florida.
There is a reason GSU is a double-digit favorite in this one. The Panthers are averaging over 500 yards of offense per game with a balanced attack moving it on the ground and through the air.
NIU has allowed a lot of yards and points this season.
On the other side of it, the Huskies have been one of the worst offenses in the country this season, averaging just 256 yards of production per game.
The only thing that could keep the Huskies is creating turnovers. NIU has intercepted at least one pass in every game this season, while Cameran Brown has thrown three interceptions while guiding the Georgia State offense.
But the NIU offense still needs to be able to capitalize on those errors.
GSU scores in bunches and Northern Illinois enters conference play winless.
Winner: Georgia State
ATS: Georgia State
O/U: Under
Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming Cowboys
Saturday, Sept. 26
12:00 PM PT, CW
Line: Hawai’i –3
Over/Under: 44.5
This is the 30th all-time meeting between Hawaii and Wyoming, and the winner will go home with the Paniolo Trophy.
This will be the conference opener for the Cowboys while the Warriors already have a MW contest under their belt, falling to UNLV earlier this season.
The Cowboys woes continued at Central Michigan last week while UH is riding some momentum after defeating New Mexico State their last time out in Week 2.
In the 10-point win over NMSU, Michah Alejado had his best performance of the season, throwing for 346 yards while completing 73% of his passes.
The QB currently leads the conference with 264.7 passing yards per game while ranking fourth nationally with 27 completions per outing.
Statistically Wyoming has been pretty stingy against the pass this season limiting opponents to just 160 yards per game, good enough to rank 27th best in the nation.
Those numbers are a bit skewed however as they held CMU to just 32 passing yards last week. They also allowed the Chips to run the ball for 339, nearly 200 yards more than they have averaged in the first two weeks.
So, in short, the Cowboys will have a very hard time stopping Hawaii when the ‘Bows have the football. UH has not moved the ball very well on the ground this season, but they did run for 118 against UNLV.
If the Warriors can do enough to keep the Cowboys from keying only on the pass, Alejado should be able to shred the defense.
Hawai’i wins this one by more than a field goal.
Winner: Hawai’i
ATS: Hawai’i
O/U: Under
New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State Aggies
Saturday, Sept. 26
12:30 PM PT, CBS Sports Network
Line: New Mexico –11.5
Over/Under: 48.5
It is the Rio Grande Rivalry—or is it the Battle of I-25? Depends upon who you ask, I suppose; UNM prefers the former while NMSU has dubbed it the latter.
I guess you can be sure it’s a rivalry when they can’t even agree on what the game is called!
The Lobos have been as stingy as any team in the country this season, ranking eighth in the nation with just 9.3 points allowed this season—and that includes limiting Oklahoma to just 14 points a week ago.
A big reason for the low scores allowed has been the Lobos’ ability to once again force turnovers this season.
UNM leads the nation with a turnover margin of +3.67 while they also lead the nation with 7 interceptions and 11 takeaways—and UNM has yet to lose a turnover this season.
Turnovers were an issue for the Aggies in their loss at Hawaii last week.
The Lobos offense has been driven by committee. Scottre Humphrey and Kiefer Sibley shared the load on the ground, leading a ground attack that has rushed for 187 yards per game.
The Lobos have also taken the QB-by-committee approach in the first three games with both Toa Fa’avaie and Luke Moga both behind center.
Moga has thrown the ball a bit better while Fa’avae has been more dynamic on the ground, but the offense has thrived in that approach.
Slowing down the Lobos will be key for the Aggies. Against Florida State they did a good job limiting the pass, but the Noles ran all over them.
In the loss at Hawaii, NMSU took away the ground game and the Rainbows beat them through the air.
Trey Hedden has directed the Aggies offense effectively this season, ranking 31st nationally with 260.3 yards per game. New Mexico will need to get him out of rhythm, and the best way to do that is to crank up the pressure.
The Lobos are averaging three sacks per game, among the best in the nation. In the Aggies’ two losses this season, they have allowed 2.5 sacks per game, three to the Seminoles, who have mustered just one sack since the opener.
The Lobos are the better team in this one, and it will play out as expected. Look for New Mexico State to keep things level for opening portion of this rivalry before the Lobos pull away.
Winner: New Mexico
ATS: New Mexico
O/U: Under
Oregon State Beavers at UTEP Miners
Saturday, Sept. 26
6:00 PM PT, MW+
Line: Oregon State –10.5
Over/Under: 48.5
The Beavers are 1-2 on the season, but 3-0 against the spread.
That is indicative of just how tight OSU played this season against a couple of solid opponents in their two losses to Texas Tech and Houston.
Saturday night’s trip to the Sun Bowl to close out non-conference play should offer a bit of respite to the Beavers and is exactly why they are installed as a big favorite on the road this week.
Braden Atkinson has started his season on a tear. The Beaver QB leads the nation with 373.3 passing yards per game and owns a TD-to-interception ratio of 8-1. The transfer from Mercer has also rushed for a pair of scores.
Slowing down the Beavers’ passing attack will be a tall order for the Miners. Last week UTEP let a pretty bad Michigan air attack throw for 246 on them, OSU might double that out put this week.
OSU should have no trouble scoring on the Miners, but will UTEP be able to keep up? No, but they will put points on the board. Last week they put up 17 on a pretty stout Michigan defense.
The Miners will have to get more production through the air. Against a pair of good defenses in Michigan and Oklahoma, UTEP had a non-existent passing attack.
In the win over Texas Southern, they were able to throw the ball effectively. I’d look for the production to be closer to what it was in the win than in the two losses.
Oregon State wins this one and will also remain unbeaten against the spread, but UTEP is going to score enough to push this over the surprisingly low total of 48.5
Winner: Oregon State
ATS: Oregon State
O/U: Under
Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack
Saturday, Sept. 26
7:30 PM PT, FS1
Line: Air Force –5.5
Over/Under: 50.5
This is an interesting nightcap in Reno. The Falcons will play their second consecutive conference game while the Wolf Pack will open MW play this week.
Air Force fell in a tight game to North Dakota State that saw the Falcons be surprisingly balanced on offense, at least yardage-wise.
They threw the ball for 179 yards while rushing for 214, granted they still ran the ball on 51 of their 66 offensive snaps.
Air Force is always one of the most disciplined teams in the nation, but this season they have been flagged 14 times in their opening two games.
Nevada has only been slightly better this season, getting flagged 6.3 times per game in the opening three weeks.
The big difference between these two teams this season has been turnovers.
Air Force has given the ball away just once this season while the Pack have turned over eight times, more than every team in the nation with the exception of two. That is not good.
Nevada certainly needs to clean up the miscues, but this one is going to come down to the home team’s ability to stop the run.
Air Force is going to run it; everyone knows it. Sure they will hit you up top on a deep shot and probably connect on a couple of them a game, but if Nevada can’t stop the run, this one is over.
In their three games, Nevada has allowed opponents to run the football.
The Falcons will run the ball, and Nevada is not going ot have an answer. This one gets in the way of the Falcons.
Winner: Air Force
ATS: Air Force
O/U: Over
writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).