By Dane Miller, SuperWest Sports
Whether we like it or not, the NCAA Tournament bracket has been expanded to 76 teams.
The expanded access essentially paves the way for more Power Conference teams to get in over mid-majors.
It’s a sad circumstance. But a sign of the times.
Embrace it or get left behind.
It could benefit the Big 12 in the long run. The Top 12 on this list enter the season as at-large candidates for the expanded NCAA Tournament.
Under the new landscape, fringe bubble teams like Colorado and Oklahoma State now have more to play for during the Conference season.
Let’s at least give the expanded tournament a chance before shooting it down. It could generate more storylines as March gets closer.
Here’s how I voted in this year’s 2026-27 Big 12 Media Poll, along with a short preview of each team.
1. Arizona
Ivan Karchenkov and Motiejus Krivas return for another season in Tucson. The duo should gel well with star freshman Caleb Holt and transfer guard Derek Dixon.
Arizona enters the year as a Final Four contender.
Tommy Lloyd’s system is proven and effective. He’s built the roster for another deep run in March.
The development of the bench and contributions from role players will be critical throughout the season.
2. Kansas
Star freshman Tyran Stokes has high expectations to perform.
The Big 12’s Preseason Freshman of the Year is expected by some to be the No. 1 draft pick in the upcoming NBA Draft.
Any underperformance from Stokes would alter the projections of KU’s season. Bill Self’s recruiting class is ranked No. 4 nationally by 247Sports.
But the ceiling of the Jayhawks’ season is largely dependent on player eligibility rulings for its upperclassmen.
3. Houston
Senior forward Joseph Tugler leads Houston for the 2026-27 season.
It’s a mostly rebuilt roster, with Mercy Miller and Chase McCarty as the only other returning contributors. But Kelvin Sampson’s development of the three players should shine through.
Tugler might end up as the Big 12’s Defensive Player of the Year, and Miller is due for a breakout.
The contributions from the transfers and freshmen will define UH’s season.
4. Iowa State
If Tamin Lipsey stays eligible, Iowa State is a Final Four-caliber team.
The fifth-year guard is the heart and soul of the program.
He facilitates the offense and has tons of experience. Without him, ISU might fall more towards the middle of the pack.
Sophomore guard Killyan Toure is primed for a strong year and could emerge as one of the stars in the Big 12.
5. BYU
This is the last year Kevin Young gets the benefit of the doubt.
With another recruiting class featuring one of the country’s top freshmen, there’s no excuse for an early exit in the NCAA Tournament.
Sweet 16s are the expectations for BYU moving forward.
The program has too much money to expect anything less.
6. Texas Tech
The status of JT Toppin is the primary question surrounding Texas Tech at the onset of the season.
The senior forward is one of the top players in the country.
When he is available, the Red Raiders become a Final Four-caliber team.
In the meantime, Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn was brought in from UNLV, providing Grant McCasland with a proven scorer.
7. Baylor
Baylor’s wins in the preseason exhibitions have turned heads.
Scott Drew’s team posted unofficial victories over No. 1 Florida and No. 3 Illinois.
They were “fake” games that don’t count. But everyone around the country has taken notice.
Drew is one of the top coaches in the Big 12, and Baylor has the resources to attract elite talent. Keep on eye on BU.
8. TCU
The expectations for TCU are real.
The Horned Frogs have one of the top trios in the Conference. Senior point guard Brock Harding, star forward Xavier Edmonds, and junior guard Micah Robinson form a strong combination.
Jamie Dixon’s team made the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament last year.
This season, a run to the Sweet 16 is a fair expectation.
9. Cincinnati
Cincinnati has a respectable basketball brand and Jerrod Calhoun is a talented coach.
That makes the Bearcats a dangerous program.
Calhoun did more with less at Utah State. With greater resources and a more recognized national brand, Cincy should take a step forward under the 10th-year coach.
But in the modern era, there are no excuses for failing to perform right away. If the roster doesn’t gel, it could be a frustrating year.
10. Arizona State
Randy Bennett’s transition to the Big 12 is one of the great storylines in the Conference this season.
After so much success at Saint Mary’s, the veteran coach made the jump to his “Dream School.”
If Bennett can replicate his success, the Sun Devils would become a perennial Tournament team.
But the first year is critical to lay the foundation. Any underperformance could highlight the structural problems within ASU’s basketball program.
11. West Virginia
The Mountaineers have established themselves in the Big 12’s pecking order under Ross Hodge.
The nonconference season will be critical for West Virginia’s Tournament chances.
WVU plays four ACC teams and will need to go 2-2 or better in those games.
The matchup with Auburn early in the year is another key opportunity to take advantage of.
12. UCF
UCF is coming off an NCAA Tournament appearance with expectations to repeat.
The Big 12 is a deep and talented league.
Johnny Dawkins’ team went 9-9 in Conference play, which was good enough for a 10-seed in the East Bracket.
That’s an achievable benchmark every season. Center John Bol is set for a breakout year.
13. Oklahoma State
Senior guard Kayne Clary leads Oklahoma State after starting 31 games for the Cowboys last year.
Steve Lutz has been steadily building the program. But the Pokes are 13-25 in Conference games under Lutz. Now entering Year
Three, an appearance in the NCAA Tournament is a fair expectation.
It’s time to breakthrough.
14. Colorado
Tad Boyle and Colorado should benefit from the expanded NCAA Tournament.
The Buffs have a reasonably respectable brand that should pay dividends in the new era.
The program took a step forward last season and Boyle is a good coach.
KenPom is not high on CU, but the Buffaloes deserve some benefit of the doubt with Boyle leading the way.
15. Utah
Alex Jensen enters his second season in Salt Lake City.
The Utes went 10-22 overall and 2-16 in the Big 12 last year.
Expectations aren’t much different this season. Winning more games at home is a reasonable barometer test.
Last year, Utah went 1-8 at the Huntsman Center in Conference games.
That number should be .500 or better this season.
16. Kansas State
Kansas State is a complete unknown.
Casey Alexander takes over the program after coaching Belmont for seven years.
The Missouri Valley Conference is underrated, but this is a massive step up.
There are no expectations for K-State. The Wildcats enter the year with the worst KenPom rating in the Big 12.
More on the Big 12
Miller covers College Basketball and College Football as well as Formula 1 racing as a Senior Writer and Assistant Editor for SuperWest Sports.
