Synopsis: Global oil markets are strained by U.S. intervention in Venezuela’s vast reserves and Middle East conflict disrupting Hormuz shipments, as the world’s largest oil holders from Venezuela to the U.S face geopolitical risks and supply volatility.
Oil remains the cornerstone of the global energy sector, powering transportation, industries, and electricity generation while fueling economic growth worldwide. Its strategic importance lies not only in meeting energy demand but also in shaping geopolitics, trade, and national security.
Countries with vast reserves, like Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, hold significant influence over global markets, making oil a critical resource for both economic stability and international power dynamics.
Venezuela’s Oil Conflict
In early 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a major military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture and removal of President Nicolas Maduro, an action Trump described as part of a campaign to increase U.S. influence and secure access to Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.
Following the operation, Trump stated the United States would “run” Venezuela on an interim basis until a transition could be arranged, prompting international concern over sovereignty and legality. The U.S. has also increased pressure on Venezuela through legal actions against its interim leadership and efforts to control oil exports, while Venezuelan authorities have condemned these moves as illegitimate and a threat to regional stability.
Oil Prices & Market Impact
Ongoing conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carries about 20–30% of the world’s oil supply.
Fears of blockage or closure have already pushed Brent crude prices above $80 per barrel and prompted forecasts of further increases if disruptions persist, as insurers pull coverage and tanker traffic collapses. Traders and analysts warn that sustained disruption could send prices into the $90–$100+ range, tightening global supply and fueling price volatility.
Potential Oil Supply Disruptions
Crude oil exports from Iraq and Kuwait could start shutting down within days if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, potentially reducing global supply by 3.3 million barrels per day by the eighth day of the Middle East conflict, according to J.P. Morgan analysts. Iraq has about three days, and Kuwait roughly 14 days before being forced to halt crude shipments that pass through the strait.
U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. Navy could escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if needed. Meanwhile, Iranian media reported that a senior official from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards claimed the strait is closed and warned that Iran would fire on any ship attempting to pass.
Countries with the largest oil reserves
The table below lists the countries with the largest proven oil reserves
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