Dane Miller’s NCAA Bracket Analysis for Teams in the West

Arizona
1 seed — West Region

The Wildcats face a challenging path to the Final Four. Receiving the No. 1 seed in the West was expected, but the top half of the bracket is tough.

A Second-Round matchup against either Villanova or Utah State won’t be easy. The Aggies are better than a 9-seed and would have a decent fan presence in San Diego.

After that, the most likely matchup is Wisconsin or Arkansas in the Sweet 16. There’s history with the Badgers and the Razorbacks, who just won the SEC Tournament.

If Tommy Lloyd gets his team all the way to the Elite 8, the potential matchups are Purdue, Gonzaga, or BYU.

That’s a moderately tough draw for the No. 2 overall seed. But in some ways, it doesn’t matter who Arizona plays.

In 1997, the Wildcats beat three 1-seeds and won the National Championship. And in 2001, the Cats beat two 1-seeds before losing to 1-seed Duke in the finals.

If this team is going to do something special, they must beat all the lower seeds they play, regardless of how good those teams actually are.

The perception around Arizona is that it always underperforms in March. It’s up to Lloyd and this year’s team to prove that reputation wrong.

Gonzaga
3 Seed – West Region

Gonzaga is the 3-seed in the West and has a somewhat favorable path to the Sweet 16. Landing in the West region was key because it put the Zags in Portland for the first two rounds.

The Bulldogs should take care of Kennesaw State and will probably face BYU in the Round of 32. The Cougar fans travel well, though, and will likely show out for the game.

Michigan State and Illinois are the other 3-seeds that might have easier paths. But Virginia arguably has a tougher draw than Gonzaga.

At the end of the day, the placement is roughly in line with expectations and might even be a seed higher than some were predicting.

Staying out West could turn out to be a deciding factor. Purdue seems like a vulnerable 2-seed, and there’s potential for an Elite 8 matchup with Arizona.

The knock on Gonzaga, however, is that they haven’t beaten any great teams this year.

Many might pick them to be upset in the Second Round, and a run deeper than the Sweet 16 would be unexpected.

BYU
6 Seed – West Region

Staying out West might be the reason BYU ends up in the Sweet 16.

The only other option was the South Region, where the winner of the 6-seed vs. 11-seed game is likely to get a matchup with Illinois.

Instead, the Cougars get a potential showdown with Gonzaga. From an objective standpoint, Gonzaga is an easier opponent than Illinois this year.

Avoiding the South Region also prevented a potential matchup with Houston in the Sweet 16. But that’s where the good news ends.

The 6-seeds have not performed well against 11-seeds. It’s one of the most common upsets in the entire tournament.

And to make matters worse, the Cougars have to face one of the teams from the First Four, a group that’s known to make runs.

All that without even mentioning the potential opponents: NC State or Texas. Most are surprised that the Wolfpack were forced into the First Four, and the Longhorns are capable.

It might be a trendy upset pick to have BYU losing in the First Round. But if the Cougars can avoid the stumble, they are good enough to beat Gonzaga and reach the Sweet 16.

Then, who knows?

Purdue is a tough second-weekend opponent, and BYU was swept by Arizona during the regular season.

UCLA
7 Seed – East Region

The seeding is not as much of an issue for UCLA. It’s the region. Getting shipped off to the East was the worst-case scenario.

The Bruins have struggled outside the Pacific Time Zone and would have much preferred to be out West.

The matchup with UCF is one of the more difficult 10-seeds, too. Santa Clara would certainly have been an easier draw, and even Missouri or Texas A&M might have been preferable.

The Second-Round matchup would be even worse. Playing UConn in Philadelphia is a nightmare. If the matchup were to be played in San Diego or Portland, the Bruins would have a stronger chance.

But facing Dan Hurley in the Eastern Time Zone is a problem. That could be where UCLA’s season comes to an end.

There may be an argument that the Bruins should have been as high as a 6-seed. UCLA has several respectable Big Ten wins over Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, and Michigan State.

There are some injury concerns, but that’s not enough to justify the 7-seed. And definitely not in the East bracket.

It’s hard to see UCLA getting to the Sweet 16. But if it does get passed UConn, then it’s good enough to get to the Elite 8.

Saint Mary’s
7 Seed – South Region

After losing to Santa Clara in the Semifinals of the WCC Tournament, it’s not much of a surprise to see Saint Mary’s as a 7-seed.

There’s no doubt that avoiding the 8 or 9-seed line was a positive outcome. The opening matchup against Texas A&M is not the worst, either.

The SEC is perpetually overrated, and the Gaels are favored to win the game. The fact that the contest is in Oklahoma City does slightly favor the Aggies, though.

But looking past the first game, Houston is looming in the Round of 32.

Of all the 7-seeds, the Gaels might have the toughest path to the Sweet 16. UConn and Purdue are both more vulnerable than Kelvin Sampson’s team.

UCLA and Miami each received more favorable draws than Saint Mary’s. Yet, that’s what happens when you don’t take care of business in a mid-major conference and have no marquee nonconference wins.

Utah State
9 Seed – West Region

The Aggies are under-seeded. The Committee messed up. Plain and simple.

The Regular Season and Tournament Champions of the Mountain West are not a 9-seed under any objective measuring stick. The Committee viewed Saint Mary’s as worthy of being two seed lines higher.

The difference shows just how little the Mountain West was respected this year. Blame that on the league’s horrible nonconference results.

But falling to the 9-seed might be the price that was paid to stay in the West. Yet, getting matched up with Villanova was no favor.

TCU and Saint Louis both received more favorable opening round games than Utah State did. And that’s without even mentioning Arizona, the No. 2 overall seed that looms in the Round of 32.

Maybe the only positive outcome is the location of the opening round. Getting to play in San Diego should give Utah State an advantage over Villanova.

If the Aggies advance to face Arizona, it will be a different story. But the Vegas oddsmakers like USU in the First Round.

Regardless, the Aggies should have been a 7-seed.

It’s hard to see Utah State getting to the second weekend with this much of an unfavorable draw.

Santa Clara
10 Seed – Midwest Region

Santa Clara got a good draw with a matchup against Kentucky in the First Round. The Wildcats are not the same program that they used to be, and the game might be the most common upset pick of the Tournament.

The contest is in St. Louis, which does moderately favor Kentucky. Yet, the 10-seed line is not bad considering that some were predicting that Santa Clara would end up in the First Four.

The potential Second-Round matchup with Iowa State is a problem, though. The Cyclones have Final Four potential and won’t overlook the Broncos if they beat Kentucky.

Even so, out of all the 10-seeds, Santa Clara got one of the better draws. Kentucky is an easier opponent than UCLA or Miami. The SEC is mostly hype and the Broncos have a reasonable chance to advance to the Second Round.

Then, Santa Clara will likely need to play its best game in several years to upset Iowa State in the Round of 32.

Hawai’i
13 Seed – West Region

The Warriors received the auto-bid from the Big West in their final year in the Conference. Staying in the West region was a great outcome, even if the opening game is a tough draw.

Arkansas just won the SEC Tournament and is coached by the legendary Jim Calipari. It’s not impossible for a 13-seed to pull off an upset, but it seems unlikely considering the opponent.

The game being in Portland helps, and there’s no doubt the crowd will be on Hawaii’s side. Yet, it’s probably a one-and-done for the Big West Champions.

If anything, it sets the stage for a successful transition to the Mountain West next season.

Cal Baptist
13 Seed – East Region

It took a miracle to get here. So why can’t the dream continue?

Cal Baptist was given a respectable 13-seed only to be pitted against a Big 12 opponent. Kansas has been up and down all season, yet the Jayhawks are a tough draw.

KU is more talented, more athletic, and better coached. To beat them, the Lancers must hit their threes. And a lot of them.

The game being played in San Diego is certainly favorable. A Southern California team playing in Southern California against a blue blood is a recipe for an upset.

The crowd will be foaming for a Cal Baptist win.

Other than the opponent drawn, CBU was treated surprisingly respectably by the Selection Committee. Staying out West and playing 1.5 hours away from campus is a clear nod to the season the Lancers have played.

Nobody is expecting this to be an upset, which is exactly why it might happen.

North Dakota State
14 Seed – East Region

The Bison won the Summit League Tournament and get a matchup with Michigan State in Buffalo.

The seed line is somewhat questionable after the Committee gave Cal Baptist a 13-seed and let the Lancers stay in Southern California.

After winning the Summit League Regular Season and securing the auto-bid, you would have expected the Committee to show a little more respect.

But if NDSU can upset the Spartans, then a magical Cinderella run to the Sweet 16 is not out of the question.

Both Louisville and South Florida are beatable if North Dakota State is good enough to take down MSU.

Idaho
15 Seed – South Region

Out of all the 15-seeds, Idaho received the toughest draw.

Houston is arguably the strongest 2-seed in the field, and the matchup is in Oklahoma City.

It’s very rare for this matchup to result in an upset. And it’s even less likely with Kelvin Sampson on the other bench.

It was a magical run to win the Big Sky Tournament and make the Big Dance. But the story likely ends in the First Round.