By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
Utah State enters its First-Round matchup in San Diego as a slight favorite over Villanova, despite being the lower seed.
A big reason for that is the high level of play the Aggies have shown down the stretch. USU is also a much healthier squad than the Wildcats at the moment.
But let’s not lose sight of the fact that Utah State also enters the national tournament as a team that can score with almost anyone.
The Aggies also play enough defense to beat opponents on the other end of the floor.
Here is my preview of Friday’s NCAA Tournament matchup.
No. 9 Utah State vs No. 8 Villanova
Friday, March 20
1:10 pm PT, TNT
San Diego, CA
The Aggies are averaging 82.8 points per game on 49.8% from the field, the 15th-best shooting team in the nation.
On the defensive side of the ball, Utah State is limiting opponents to 70.4 points per game, slightly better than Villanova’s 70.8.
But the Aggies score the ball a lot better than the Wildcats.
What makes Utah State so difficult to contain is the combination of Mason Falslev and MJ Collins. The two have combined to knockdown 38.1% of their 328 three-point attempts this season.
Falslev, the MW player of the year, is also connecting on 41.1% of his triples.
When the Aggies get a good look at the basket, they are deadly on offense. USU is 14th in the nation, shooting 65.9% on non-blocked two-point shots this season.
Villanova has allowed opponents to shoot 45% from the floor this season, ranking 203rd in the country, while opponents are connecting on 54.8% of their clean two-point FGs.
The Wildcats rely heavily on the three-pointer to score; 37.4% of Villanova’s points this season have come from distance, the 39th highest rate in the nation.
Utah State has done a decent job of limiting opponents on deep shots, allowing opponents to connect on 33.8% of their three-point attempts.
The Aggies cannot afford to allow Villanova to get hot from beyond the arc.
The ‘Cats have a plethora of shooters led by Tyler Perkins and Bryce Lindsay, while Devin Askew is a threat off the bench.
Askew earned Big East Sixth Man of the Year accolades with his 10.0 points per game off the bench. The transfer from Grand Canyon is eighth in the nation with 4.03 offensive rebounds per game.
The biggest key for Utah State on defense might just be limiting the offensive put-backs by Nova’s center, Duke Brennan. The big man’s 10.3 boards per outing ranks 11th-best in the country.
The Aggies are not allowing a ton of extra possessions per game this season, as they are 31st nationally with 3.5 more scoring chances per game than their opponents.
Villanova is getting 2.8 more scoring chances per game than their opponents.
If the Wildcats can get hot from distance, they will be able to keep this one tight. If the shots are not falling, it could go south in a hurry for the third-place team from the Big East.
Look for the Mountain West champs to move on to the Second Round behind a balanced attack.
writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).
