As US forces near Iran, what we know so far about the prospects of an attack

Prospects of an attack on Iran were raised after Trump threatened Iran for cracking down on protests in the country in late December 2025. The agitation was triggered by inflation, rapid currency depreciation and other economic concerns, and was among the biggest protests in the Islamic Republic in recent years. What has happened since then, and what’s the outlook for the next few days? Here is what is known so far.

What is the scale of the US military build-up near Iran?

Key military systems have been moved closer to Iran.

The NYT reported that the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, “fresh from the Caribbean where it was part of the naval fleet pressuring the Venezuelan government of President Nicolás Maduro”, was approaching Gibraltar near the Mediterranean Sea on Wednesday (February 18).

The carrier is “likely to be deployed initially near the coast of Israel to defend Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities and towns,” officials told the newspaper. It is the largest warship ever built, capable of supporting up to 90 aircraft and over 4,500 crew members. It will join the USS Abraham Lincoln, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, which is already in the region.

Systems capable of attacking Iranian missiles have also been moved. These include the Patriot (considered the country’s most advanced air defence system) and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems.

On February 10, Reuters analysed satellite images to report that US forces in Qatar’s al-Udeid, the biggest US base in the Middle East, put missiles into truck launchers to ease their movement amid escalating tensions. The base houses around 10,000 troops.

And what have Trump and Iranian leaders said?

In effect, Trump threatened attacks on Iran over the protests, which ultimately paved the way for negotiations. But there is a history to this turn of events.

On January 2, as reports from Iran indicated that the state was heavily cracking down on protestors, Trump wrote in a Truth Social post that if Iran “violently kills peaceful protesters,” the United States “will come to their rescue.” “We are locked and loaded and ready to go,” he added.

While admitting to the dire economic situation and acknowledging the frustrations of the population, Iranian leaders later claimed that the protestors were attempting to bring down the regime and colluding with foreign governments (meaning the US and Israel).

On January 11, Trump said that Iran proposed negotiations following his warnings. In early February, both sides agreed to talks.

Notably, similar indirect talks in April-May 2025 were broken off by attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Those talks were prompted by Iran’s worsening economic condition after years of Western countries imposing sanctions. For the US, too, it offered an opportunity to conditionally improve ties after decades of hostility. Iran and the US severed official relations in 1980.

Attempts were also made in 2015, when Iran agreed to certain limitations on its nuclear programme, including international monitoring of its facilities and keeping uranium enrichment — a key part of the process — under the requisite limit. This resulted in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed with the EU, and the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, UK, US) in 2015.

Trump, however, had the US exit the agreement in 2018, calling it a “horrible, one-sided deal” that favoured Iran. On Iran’s part, it has long insisted that it only plans to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. But, its technical capabilities are at a stage where it can proceed with developing weapons. This is deliberate, since it guarantees the Iranian regime a crucial leverage against the US and Israel, ensuring its survival.

Some of the main asks from the US during the current negotiations have been for Iran to halt ballistic missile development and cease support to its regional non-state allies (groups like Hamas and Hezbollah). The US’s deep ties with Israel are believed to be the reason for these demands. Earlier this week, the US said “progress was made”, while the Iranian side said they reached an understanding on the main “guiding principles” for resolving the nuclear issues, according to the BBC.

However, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, also said not too long ago that “More dangerous than an aircraft carrier is the weapon that can send it to the bottom of the sea,” referring to its nuclear leverage. Trump also said on Friday that the world will know “over the next, probably, 10 days” about the fate of the negotiations, or whether military action will follow.

What could happen next?

A lot for Iran, in terms of the range of options available to the US, and for the global oil supply.

The NYT quoted US officials as saying that the final decision on the scope of targets is largely up to Trump. But, it added that the build-up “suggests an array of possible Iranian targets,” including the headquarters of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Whatever the target, the attack could be similar to the 2025 strikes or could be larger in scope, given the lack of clarity about the goal of the exercise. A BBC report argued that even regime collapse may be possible, or that Iran may respond to strikes by attacking Israel.

What is clear is that a smaller-scale attack will further deal a blow to a regime that has been weakened by decades of sanctions, with brewing domestic discontent. This is in addition to the blows to its network of allies. Israel’s military action in Gaza since 2023 and its associated attacks on Hamas and other groups linked to Iran have eliminated top leaders of these organisations.

However, the regime is also known for its resilience, as shown by its survival despite clear weaknesses. Past predictions of regime collapses have not come true, whether due to severe action against protestors at home, proxy organisations, or the internal strength of the institutions developed over decades. There is also a lack of a sustained and organised opposition force within Iran.

Globally, any potential conflict will affect the passage of oil through the critical chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, near Iran. Already, oil prices are at a six-month high. Read our explainer here to understand how prices may rise, by how much and why India has stakes in the issue.