Goldman Sachs Group Inc. revised its forecast for China’s current-account surplus this year after incorporating data for the fourth quarter, when the measure of trade in goods and services rose to a record.
The US bank now sees the surplus at 4.3% of gross domestic product in 2026, compared with 4.1% previously, according to a report. It reached 3.7% of GDP last year, exceeding Goldman’s forecast of 3.5%, economists led by Yuting Yang said.
Preliminary figures published by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, or SAFE, showed China ran a current-account surplus of $242 billion last quarter, which Goldman estimates is the equivalent of 4.4% of GDP.
“Looking forward, we expect a larger current-account surplus in 2026 on wider goods trade surplus and slightly narrower service trade deficit,” Goldman’s economists said. “For capital and financial accounts, we expect the picture of inward and outward FDI to remain similar this year vs. last year, and portfolio investment outflow to be smaller this year compared to last year.”
China’s services trade deficit narrowed in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, SAFE’s data showed, while surging exports lifted its goods surplus.
The International Monetary Fund had projected China’s overall current-account surplus at 3.3% of GDP last year. External imbalances are becoming more pronounced, which the IMF has linked in part to a real depreciation of the yuan.
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