By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
The Mountain West has been a multi-bid league in every NCAA tournament since the 2017 version, when Nevada was the sole representative of the league.
The Wolf Pack went 28-7 that year under Eric Musselman, winning both the regular-season and conference tournament crowns en route to a seven seed in the Big Dance.
That streak of multiple bids is in serious doubt heading into the final two and a half weeks of the 2025-26 men’s basketball season.
And the league’s chances of getting an at-large birth took a big hit on Tuesday with Grand Canyon knocking off San Diego State inside Viejas Arena on Tuesday night.
The loss snapped a 10-game home court winning streak for the Aztecs and signaled a season sweep for the Antelopes over SDSU.
It was also a big blow to the Aztecs’ NCAA hopes. San Diego State is firmly on the bubble at the moment and most likely on the outside looking in if Selection Sunday were today.
The only lock for the conference appears to be Utah State. The Aggies sit at 23-3 on the season and rank 23rd in the most recent NET rankings.
The Aggies are a very solid 3-2 in Quad 1 games while going 20-1 across the rest of their schedule after Wednesday’s 75-56 rout of Boise State.
USU shows up in all 124 bracket projections and, per Bracket Matrix, has an average seed of 7.42.
In bracket projections, the Aggies are as high as a five seed and as low as a nine. This would indicate that even with a slip-up in the MW Tournament, USU should be comfortably in.
But if they go on a skid, things could get dicey.
While the Aggies are the highest MW team in the NET rankings, they are among seven conference squads ranking among the top 101.
The problem is that the next-highest teams are New Mexico and San Diego State, and they fall firmly into the bubble range in ranking in the mid-40’s.
The other four teams in the top third of the nation fall between the 60-101 range, and at this point, that would require an auto bid.
SDSU still enters the weekend having won 15 of their last 19 games, but the Aztecs are lacking the signature win, going 1-4 in Quad 1 games. The Aztecs rank 44th in the NET as of February 18.
If the Aztecs can close the regular season with a flurry, they could play their way off the bubble.
A visit from Utah State and trips to New Mexico and Boise State offer SDSU a chance to pad the resume and three chances at Quad 1 wins.
Again, according to Bracket Matrix, the Aztecs are still a consensus NCAA team appearing in 84 of 124 projections and ranging anywhere from a 10 to a 12 seed…So in, but firmly on the bubble.
The Lobos find themselves in a similar situation. New Mexico is ranked slightly higher in the NET at 42, compared to SDSU’s 44, but appears on just 16 of the 124 bracket projections.
UNM also has a chance to play its way off the bubble, but has just two grand opportunities: The showdown with SDSU in The Pit, which would be a Quad Two win for the Lobos, and the regular season finale at Utah State.
The intriguing team in the mix is Grand Canyon. The Antelopes have picked up some big wins but have also underperformed at times. A more consistent showing this season, and GCU could be a near lock.
The Lopes are an impressive 3-4 in Quad 1 games this season, but just 5-4 in Quad 2 and Quad 3 games combined, and the early-season home loss to Youngstown State is still an inexplicable result.
The Mountain West has shown itself to be a deep conference this season, but the streak of multiple NCAA bids is in jeopardy. Nonetheless, a couple of paths remain to get there.
Obviously, a strong finish for Utah State and then an upset of the Aggies in the Championship game in Vegas would be the easiest route.
The other option is for the Aggies to continue winning, and either San Diego State or New Mexico to get hot and stay hot.
If the Mountain West is to be a multiple-bid league for the ninth straight year, it will need one of those teams to separate itself from the other.
That prospect would have been a much easier scenario if the Aztecs had kept their home-court win streak intact on Tuesday night, but Utah State’s win on Wednesday was a step in the right direction.
writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).
