Washington and Tehran have announced a fragile ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan. The spotlight is on Islamabad, emerging as a consequential mediator. A struck-down UNSC resolution reflects the state of the world order and the emergence of an ‘Axis’. In the Far East, China takes a step toward restoring ties with its bitter brethren across the Strait.
Iran and the US announced a two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, minutes before the expiry of US President Donald Trump’s deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Although the announcement has brought some respite to the world, the truce remains fragile.
Hours before the ceasefire announcement, Trump wrote on Truth Social that “a whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” building up on his previous threats to target Iranian civilian and energy infrastructure.
Setting a deadline for Tuesday, 8 pm ET (Wednesday, 5.30 am IST), Trump was pushing for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as the first step toward a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Iran was looking for guarantees from Washington to end hostilities permanently.
The US had forwarded a 15-point peace proposal to Iran, which the latter rejected before offering a 10-point counterproposal.
The standoff continued even as the conflict witnessed a massive escalation, with the US striking more than 50 military targets in Iran’s Kharg Island, which handles 90 per cent of Tehran’s oil exports. Iran remained adamant till the 11th hour.
Announcement of the ceasefire
An hour-and-a-half before his 8 pm deadline expired, Trump announced a ceasefire, calling Iran’s proposal “a workable basis on which to negotiate.” Around 40 minutes later, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Tehran was considering the US proposal.
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Trump and Araghchi said that the ceasefire was owing to conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir.
Islamabad Talks 2026 on Saturday
The ceasefire remains in effect, and the spotlight is on Pakistan, emerging as a consequential mediator. Islamabad is preparing to host high-level delegations from the two countries on Saturday to end the conflict.
Pakistan has also announced visa-on-arrival for all delegates and journalists arriving for the diplomatic engagement, dubbed ‘Islamabad Talks 2026’.
US Vice President J D Vance will lead the delegation from Washington. He will be accompanied by special envoy to West Asia Steve Witkoff and US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. The Iranian delegation will include Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Deadlocks may arise
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While the official versions of the proposals from each side are yet to be published, the core demands have been shared. The ceasefire remains fragile as key demands from each side directly contradict one another.
These aren’t just minor differences, but reflect diametrically opposing worldviews and roadmaps for regional order. Here are the key contradictions:
Tehran’s nuclear enrichment and missile programme: The US has demanded that Iran completely dismantle its uranium enrichment programme, viewing it as the core of Tehran’s latent nuclear weapons capability. Tehran has insisted on its sovereign right to enrichment.
The US is also seeking to limit Iran’s ballistic missile programme, while Tehran considers its missile arsenal as indispensable to its conventional deterrence strategy.
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Before the war broke out, Tehran had conceded to several of Washington’s demands. These included zero stockpiling of nuclear material, down-blending its existing 60 per cent enriched stockpile to irreversible fuel, and allowing US inspectors access to Iranian nuclear sites.
The question is whether Iran will dilute its red line as well, given that it has demonstrated its ability to stomach a month-long war with the US and ‘decapitation’ strikes from Israel?
Control over the Strait of Hormuz: The US has called for the “complete, immediate, and safe opening” of the Strait of Hormuz – the transit route for a fifth of global energy supplies – effectively returning to the pre-war status quo.
Iran had maintained a chokehold on this major global energy artery during the conflict, and it seeks to legitimise its control at the negotiation table, demanding the US’ recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait.
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During the conflict, Tehran reportedly charged $2 million for each vessel transiting this chokepoint. In its proposal, it has suggested that toll collection be split between Iran and Oman. Tehran seeks to use the revenue as reparations for the war.
Earlier, a parliamentary commission in Iran approved plans to impose tolls on vessels transiting the Strait – a direct challenge to the Gulf Arab states’ influence in the region. Last week, we discussed that several Gulf states have reportedly been pushing the US to escalate the conflict to weaken Tehran.
Economic sanctions: Iran has demanded that all US primary and secondary sanctions, as well as multilateral sanctions regimes, be lifted. Tehran views this step as a prerequisite for any agreement. Washington views relief as a final incentive, contingent upon Iran first meeting its conditions. Hence, the potential deadlock lies in whether concessions should precede or follow Tehran meeting Washington’s conditions.
Iran’s proxy network: The US views Iran’s proxy network, comprising Hezbollah (in Lebanon), Hamas (Palestine), and the Houthis (Yemen), as destabilising actors and has demanded that Tehran cease all support to them. Iran, however, sees these actors as a cornerstone of its regional deterrence.
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Withdrawal of US forces from the region: Iran is seeking the withdrawal of its combat forces from the region – a move that would dismantle Washington’s security framework, which the Gulf and Israel rely on to balance Tehran’s influence. The US is unlikely to budge, given that the ‘oil for security’ arrangement with the Gulf countries is a pillar of its foreign policy in this crucial theatre.
Ending war on all fronts, including Lebanon: Fears of an impasse have been compounded by the ongoing Israeli operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Cessation of war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, was among the terms in Iran’s 10-point proposal. Since US President Donald Trump announced the truce on Wednesday, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu intensified Tel Aviv’s campaign against Hezbollah.
Israel scaled up its offensive against the Shia militant group, engaging more than 100 targets in Lebanon in a span of 10 minutes on Wednesday, and killing over 300 people and 1,165 in the process. The attacks drew flak from several European and West Asian countries.
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Before the attacks on Wednesday, more than 1,500 had been killed in Israel’s air and ground campaign across the country, including more than 130 children.
The country was dragged into the wider conflict in West Asia after Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel on March 2. The group broke its ceasefire with Tel Aviv over the US-Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei days earlier.
II. Bahrain’s UNSC Resolution struck down
On Tuesday, the day before the ceasefire was announced, China and Russia – Iran’s key strategic allies – vetoed a UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution aimed at boosting security and protecting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
- The veto power is the authority of the five permanent members (P5) of the UNSC (China, France, Russia, the UK, and the US) to unilaterally block any resolution, even if it has majority support.
Bahrain had submitted the draft resolution to the UNSC on February 28, on behalf of the Gulf Cooperation Council (which also includes Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman) and Jordan. The resolution also called for the condemnation of Iranian drone and missile attacks against the seven countries, which have come under Tehran’s retaliatory strikes.
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Formally adopted by the UNSC as Resolution 2817 (2026) on March 11, the resolution was co-sponsored by 136 countries. However, in the 15-member UNSC, 11 voted in favour of the resolution, China and Russia were against, and two abstained.
China and Russia are regarded as part of the “Axis of Autocracy” – a term used by circles in Washington to refer to the strategic alignment of authoritarian states.
China accounts for roughly 90 per cent of Iran’s exported oil purchases, helping the Islamic Republic generate tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue.
On the other hand, Russia has strengthened cooperation with Iran for the supply and production of Tehran’s flagship Shahed ‘suicide’ drones, which have helped Moscow dilute Ukraine’s air defences in the ongoing war in Europe.
The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission noted that after US strikes began, China allowed two state-owned Iranian vessels in a Chinese port to be loaded with sodium perchlorate, which is used in solid rocket fuel for missiles.
Notably, Chinese and Russian vessels were among those allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz during Iran’s blockade. Tehran has also taken the moment to cleave existing faultlines between the US and its allies by allowing ships belonging to India, Pakistan, Iraq, Japan, Korea and France to pass through.
III. Xi Jinping meets Taiwan opposition leader
Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday received Taiwan’s main opposition party leader Cheng Li-wun of the Kuomintang (KMT) in a bid to normalise cross-strait ties.
Over the last decade, relations between the two countries dipped to one of their lowest points in history. Beijing regards the island nation as a territory of the People’s Republic of China (mainland), which is ruled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
In 2016, Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was elected the President. The DDP is widely regarded as pro-independence in its posture towards Beijing. China suspended formal communication channels with Taiwan, citing Tsai’s refusal to endorse the concept of a single Chinese nation.
During Friday’s meeting at China’s Great Hall of the People, Xi said parties are meeting “to safeguard the peace and stability of our shared homeland, to promote the peaceful development of cross-strait relations, and to allow future generations to share in a bright and beautiful future,” as quoted by the BBC.
He added that China was willing to strengthen dialogue with various parties, including the KMT, on the condition that they oppose Taiwanese independence. Xi also reiterated that those on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are Chinese and that they all want peace.
Cheng said the “rejuvenation of the Chinese people is a shared aspiration of the people on both sides of the Strait,” adding that it would be a “positive contribution to world peace and human progress.”
After a closed-door meeting with Xi, Cheng said every generation had to understand that opposing Taiwan independence and maintaining the 1992 Consensus was a way to “avoid war.”
The DPP has rejected the 1992 Consensus, arguing that it undermines Taiwan’s sovereignty.
Beijing has refused to hold formal dialogue with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te of the DDP, whom they have labelled a “separatist”.
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