10 Teams From West Most Likely to Make the 2026 Playoff

1. Oregon Ducks

All the above disclaimers about these rankings being strictly about the likelihood of making the Playoff aside, Oregon will be the best team in the West this season.

Yes, I know, that’s not much of a prediction!

In all seriousness, the Ducks are not only the best team in the West, but they should also find themselves among the top three teams in the Big Ten this season.

That would certainly be good enough to earn a nod from the CFP committee, assuming they don’t get the automatic bid for winning the Big Ten Championship game.

Should the Ducks fail to make the conference title game, I still think they are a virtual lock for the postseason tournament as the third or even fourth-place team in the conference.

2. BYU Cougars

When the playoffs finally get expanded to 24 teams—and that’s a when, not an if—things will change a bit on these types of lists.

If it were a 24-team field this season, I just might put BYU ahead of Oregon.

But alas, we are still in the 12-team era and the third/fourth-place squad from the Big Ten or SEC is still more of a lock than the potential second-place outfit from the Big 12.

Simply put, I think the Cougars might be the class of their league, especially with the sudden QB issues at Texas Tech.

But a lock for the Playoff? Not completely. The Big 12 Championship auto-bid is the pathway for the Cougars, and it will be there for the taking.

Can we say for certain that the conference will be a two-bid league? No, we cannot.

Should BYU stumble against the Red Raiders again this season, the result could be the same as a season ago.

3. Boise State Broncos

I see the Broncos winning the new-look Pac-12, holding off a significant challenge from San Diego State.

So, the Broncos take the conference crown and look to be the top Group of Six team, earning a berth in the Playoff.

Now, Liberty could step up and make a run from Conference USA, but in reality, this bid will come down to the champion of the Pac-12, Mountain West, or American.

(Tuesday Night MACtion is amazing and the Sun Belt really is the Fun Belt, but among the Group of Six, these two are the bottom of the leftovers).

The American looks pretty wide open, and some of the bigger guns of the past are going through some changes.  I see Navy and Tulane battling for the final, but the deep league could bang both teams around a bit.

So, which is the better team—a potential Pac-12 champ Boise State or possible MW title holder UNLV?  If only there were some way that Boise State and UNLV could meet in a game. Perhaps a conference game and then maybe again in a title game?

But what kind of a fantasy world would that be?  Boise State and UNLV in the same conference!!! Pie in the sky idea there, Steve; fantasy time is over, let’s get back to reality.

So, in short, the Broncos are the third most likely team to garner a spot in the Playoff by virtue of being the Group of Six representative.

4. UNLV Rebels

The Rebels are the flagbearer for the new-look Mountain West Conference. They should be able to navigate their schedule and claim the conference crown.

I think the Pac-12 will be the tougher of the two conferences this season, and Boise State will be the more likely team to make the tournament.

I still have UNLV at No. 4 because if they take care of their business, we are one upset away on Championship Weekend from the Rebels taking the bid that was destined for their old conference rivals.

5. Washington Huskies

The Huskies should be much-improved over last season, and the schedule is set for a big number in the win column.

UW catches a bit of a break with neither Ohio State or Michigan on the slate.

If they pass early tests at USC and at home vs. Iowa, the Huskies could very well be 10-0 heading into the final two weeks of November.

Those final two regular season games bring Indiana to Seattle and include a trip to Eugene to close it out.

It would be no easy feat, but a 10-or-11-win season could be there for the taking, and that would most likely be enough to earn a Playoff berth for Washington.

6. USC Trojans

This is a huge season for the Trojans and head coach Lincoln Riley.

I’ll write more in a future column on just how important it is, I am sure.

But for now, is it the Playoff or bust? And is the CFP on the horizon?

Well, they need to win nine games, and if they do that, they are in! While the Huskies have a schedule set up for success, USC has a schedule set up for opportunity—or disaster.

The Trojans will need to string together several big Ws in a six-game stretch, starting with home games against Oregon and Washington before trips to Penn State and Wisconsin.

Those zingers are followed by a home game vs. Ohio State and a road tip to Indiana.

Should USC navigate that stretch with a 4-2 mark or better and take care of business the rest of the way, a spot in the Playoff is a virtual lock. Again, there are a couple of “IF’s” in there, but it is there for the taking for this very talented team.

Even a 3-3 stretch could garner at-large discussion for a 9-3 team with that schedule.

(Things I never thought I’d write in my lifetime: A road trip to Indiana is a chance for USC to prove they belong!?!?!?!?)

7. Utah Utes

The Utes should be among the perceived top four in the Big 12 this season (along with Texas Tech, BYU, and Kansas State).

Of the other three on that list, only BYU is on the schedule, and that contest will be played in Salt Lake City the first weekend of November.

Should the Utes successfully navigate the rest of the schedule, they could be sitting pretty.

Over the last 36 seasons, the Utes have had just three head coaches.

Kyle Whittingham and Ron McBride are Numbers 1 and 3 all-time on the school wins list, and No. 2 Urban Meyer went 22-2 during his time in SLC.

Morgan Scalley has a chance to jump right in with a lot of success in Year One of his tenure.

8. San Diego State Aztecs

I am projecting the Aztecs as the second choice from the Pac-12, which unfortunately would not be enough make the Playoff. (See Boise State and UNLV).

However, if SDSU can string together enough wins to keep the resume strong and upset Boise State in the conference title game on December 4, the Aztecs could well find themselves in the CFP.

9. Arizona Wildcats

The Wildcats improved last season, and this season the upward trajectory should continue.

Similar to USC, the Wildcats schedule, while daunting, offers plenty of opportunity. Many of the Big 12 heavyweights avoid each other this season, but Arizona seemingly has them all.

Starting off with a Week 2 trip to Provo, the Wildcats will have plenty of opportunities to make a statement.

If they can make enough statements and perhaps have some things break their way, they could be among the Field of 12 in December.

10. Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors

I can’t have a list of nine; that just doesn’t make sense, so let’s make it 10, nice and even. But who is No. 10?

North Dakota State, New Mexico? Sure, perhaps one of them plays UNLV for the MW title.

But in truth, it’s Timmy Chang’s Warriors that have the best chance at crashing the Playoff party if things break their way.

What’s the easiest way for a mid-major to make some noise? Knock off a power conference opponent—or two—and UH has two of them on the slate: at Stanford and at Arizona State.

Win those two, and we are not exactly talking Ohio State or Georgia-caliber upsets, but upsets nonetheless. And in fact, they are games the Warriors could steal.

UNLV comes to town Week two, so get the Rebels early in the season after the long flight, maybe score a win in that one.  Do all of that, and Hawai’i is suddenly everyone’s second favorite school during the Holiday season.

When UH shocks the college football world in December, remember you heard it here first (when they don’t, remember we wanted a nice even number for the list).