A recent study suggests that the Earth’s population, which currently stands at 8.3 billion, has surpassed the planet’s capacity, with humanity’s ecological footprint exceeding the Earth’s biocapacity by approximately 23%. The findings, published in Environmental Research Letters, suggest that humans are using nature about 80% faster than ecosystems can regenerate, equivalent to needing 1.8 Earths to sustain the current demand.
The study was led by Corey Bradshaw of Flinders University in Australia, and it is based on more than two centuries of population data. The scientists found that in ancient times, an equilibrium existed between the human population and the planet. But as the growth rate began after the 1950s, the balance was disrupted.
“This shift marked the beginning of what we call ‘a negative demographic phase,'” Corey Bradshaw, who is the lead author, said in a statement. “It means that adding more people no longer translates into faster growth. When we examined this phase, we found the global population is likely to peak somewhere between 11.7 and 12.4 billion people by the late 2060s or 2070s if current trends hold.”
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Bradshaw further added that Earth cannot keep up with the “way in which we are using resources”. “It cannot support even today’s demand without major changes, with our findings showing that we are pushing the planet harder than it can possibly cope.”
The scientists said that exceeding the Earth’s carrying capacity leads to ecological debt, accelerating environmental degradation, climate change, and biodiversity loss.
“The truly sustainable population is much lower and closer to what the world supported in the mid-twentieth century. Our calculations show a sustainable global population closer to about 2.5 billion people if everyone were to live within ecological limits and comfortable, economically secure living standards,” the professor said.
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The study’s findings emphasise the urgent need for sustainable practices and global cooperation to mitigate the ecological crisis. Also, stabilising population growth through education and family planning.
Restoring natural ecosystems and transforming energy systems to renewables are some of the potential solutions. It is also advised to redesign cities for sustainability and reform food production and consumption.
“Smaller populations with lower consumption create better outcomes for both people and the planet. The window to act is narrowing, but meaningful change is still achievable if nations work together,” he said. “The choices we make over the coming decades will determine the well-being of future generations and the resilience of the natural world that supports all life.”
