6 min readNew DelhiUpdated: May 3, 2026 06:17 PM IST
Winning Bengal for the first time, dislodging the DMK from power in Tamil Nadu along with ally AIADMK, making gains in Kerala, and retaining Assam with a larger mandate. This is what a happy Monday will look like for the BJP as votes are counted for the Assembly elections in the four states and the Union Territory of Puducherry.
However, the exit polls have thrown up a mixed bag for the BJP, with anxiety and doubts persisting about whether it can bring down the Mamata Banerjee government in West Bengal. In Tamil Nadu, the party is worried about actor Vijay’s TVK undercutting its momentum, and in Kerala, it finds itself navigating a triangular contest dominated by the traditional rivalry between the LDF and UDF. The only state where the BJP holds no doubt is Assam, where the party expects a historic consolidation of power, turning the incumbency into a resounding mandate. In Puducherry, the party feels assured that the ruling coalition, in which it is a partner, will return to power.
If the exit poll projections turn out to be true, the BJP’s attempts to reinforce itself as the most dominant pan-regional force will be a success in the East, where the party is already in power in Odisha and Bihar. Its Mission South, however, continues to look more like a long-term project, given the ground reality in Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
Despite the forecast of many polls that the TMC’s 15-year rule in Bengal is likely to come to an end on May 4, senior BJP leaders are holding their breath as no survey has indicated a clean sweep or massive anti-incumbency, with most projecting a close contest. BJP strategists who were actively involved in electioneering in West Bengal, however, said the party had “turned the corner” in the state.
“The party, with our systematic campaign and meticulous planning, has managed to get over the hump. The call for poriborton (change) has taken root in people’s minds. The voters have accepted us as the alternative and we could see that on the ground. At the small meetings and roadshows, the expressions on their faces were welcoming. They were no longer passive. It was very clear that we are no longer viewed as outsiders. We have no doubt that we will be able to inflict deep cracks in Mamata’s citadel if not ensure her fall,” said one of the party’s star campaigners.
Even a fall in the TMC’s seat tally will not just mean a massive surge for the party in a state that Union Home Minister Amit Shah has often referred to as the “final frontier”, but perhaps also the beginning of the end of the era of Mamata Banerjee, one of the few Opposition leaders who has stood like a rock against the BJP. A victory will be an absolute affirmation of the party’s strategy in its quest to be a truly pan-national party and the most glorious feather in Shah’s cap (he has set a target of winning 170 seats in the 294-member House). On New Year’s Eve, Shah had told his party colleagues in the state: “Dil pe likh lo, is baar hamari sarkar (Write it in your hearts, we will form the government this time).”
A loss, however, will lead to questions about the party’s strategy and whether it did enough to strengthen its grassroots network to take on the TMC and shed the tag of party of “outsiders”. Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan, and in the event of a loss, the party will be forced to return to the drawing board and recalibrate yet again. It will then have to evaluate if its state leadership is up to the task or if it has to find other faces in the coming battles against the TMC.
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The southern situation
Down South, it seems that the party has to undergo a longer journey. In Tamil Nadu, which has alternated between the two Dravidian majors, the DMK is projected to storm back to power, but it could face pressure from its allies to share power, a bone of contention between the DMK and the Congress in the run-up to the elections.
If Vijay’s TVK emerges as a significant force, it will threaten the existence of the main Opposition party, AIADMK and will be bad news for the BJP, which has been struggling to take off in the state despite its acceptability somewhat increasing in recent years.
Sources said the BJP’s formal coalition with the AIADMK in the run-up to the elections dampened its chances of a possible alliance with the TVK. If the TVK performs better than the AIADMK-BJP, it could create fresh hurdles for the party in the south. The BJP leadership had kept open the possibility of striking an alliance or reaching an understanding with Vijay, which may have inadvertently helped the actor’s party be seen as the most formidable alternative to the DMK-led alliance. It could mean that the TVK might have taken away the targeted support base of the BJP: the youth, women, and the middle class. If it plays out like that, it will force the BJP to rethink its strategy.
In Kerala, where many pollsters have given the NDA a maximum of five seats, the party is still likely to remain a marginal player despite the intense campaign this time, as it appears to have failed to garner the support of any major community. However, in a state where it had just one MLA a decade ago, anything more will be progress. But the party will have to reframe its narrative to expand beyond isolated pockets of support.
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