Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands were preparing on Sunday for the arrival of Typhoon Bavi, a powerful storm that was forecast to pass close to the U.S. Pacific territories a day later.
Bavi intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 strength hurricane as it barreled west on Sunday evening. It was expected to bring destructive winds and heavy rainfall to a region that is still recovering from Typhoon Sinlaku, a storm that caused widespread damage in April.
Typhoon Bavi was forecast to pass between Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands, an archipelago that is home to about 43,000 people, on Monday morning local time.
According to the Tiyan, Barrigada, Guam office of the National Weather Service, the latest forecast track still maintained the passage of Bavi to be somewhere near, or to the north of, Rota Island, though forecasters said there was still time for the track to shift north or south. If the track shifts farther south, there was a chance that all of Guam could experience “destructive typhoon conditions,” the office said.
Regardless of the exact path, the service said all islands were expected to experience impacts, with at least damaging tropical storm-force conditions. The onset of these conditions was expected from Sunday evening local time.
Conditions near the center of Super Typhoon Bavi, however, could be “catastrophic,” they said. Maximum sustained winds were around 167 miles per hour — equivalent to a Category 5 strength hurricane — according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center during its approach on Sunday evening local time. The National Weather Service warned that destructive typhoon conditions could last for up to 10 hours in areas closest to the storm’s center.
Significant flooding from torrential rains, along with dangerous coastal inundation was also expected. Between 12 to 16 inches of rainfall was forecast for the region through Tuesday. A flood watch was in effect for all of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands.
In addition, the National Weather Service said that a typhoon warning remained in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan, with a tropical storm warning for Alamagan and tropical storm watches for Pagan and Agrihan. A coastal flood warning and high surf warning were also in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.
Coastal impacts were expected to be severe. Storm surge was forecast to reach two to four feet, with an additional five to 10 feet of wave-driven run-up, the service said. Surf was already building up to 12 to 18 feet, and was expected to increase to around 15 to 25 feet or higher by Monday morning local time.
On Sunday evening local time, the National Weather Service warned that the window for final preparations was rapidly closing to evacuate, with damaging tropical storm conditions “potentially starting within the next few hours.”
The authorities in Guam activated the highest level of a four-tier alert system, opened evacuation shelters, and urged residents to stay off the roads and out of the water. They also restricted access to U.S. military facilities on the island.
On Guam, which has a population of about 150,000 people, many residents spent the weekend preparing for the storm. Some covered the windows of their homes or businesses with plywood.
Marites Schwab, who lives in a village overlooking the island’s capital, Hagatna, said she had gone through her usual pre-typhoon routine of fueling up her cars with gasoline, collecting water in cans, and charging batteries and backup devices.
“Never perfect but I’m reasonably prepared,” she said. “I hope the power and water don’t go out.”
Adoracion Leomo said she had secured the window shutters of her home in a coastal village near Guam’s international airport. She hoped that would be enough, she said, but she wasn’t sure.
“I’m not sure what to expect,” she said. “I just need to say a prayer that God will shield us from a strong typhoon.”
After Super Typhoon Bavi passes Guam and the Mariana Islands, it is expected to continue moving west-northwest across the open Pacific, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. In the short term, the storm is likely to maintain a fairly steady tract, steered by a strong area of high-pressure to its north, and may even strengthen slightly as it moves over very warm ocean waters.
Beyond that point, the forecast becomes less certain, and open to a broad range of possible outcomes. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center said Bavi is expected to gradually turn more toward the northwest, placing its longer-term track somewhere across a wide stretch of the western Pacific, with potential influences ranging from the waters east of the Philippines to the broader region around Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands. However, at this stage, the precise destination remains uncertain.
