Six months into its war with the United States and Israel, Iran’s leadership has tightened its grip around a core of hard-line military commanders and clerics, signalling that it will resist US pressure abroad while moving aggressively to prevent dissent at home.A series of senior appointments announced on August 11 and 12 has placed veteran Revolutionary Guard figures and security officials at the heart of Iran’s leadership. The moves come as Tehran prepares for a potentially prolonged confrontation with Washington, rejects trust in negotiations with President Donald Trump and faces mounting economic pressure from the US blockade and new sanctions.The appointments have also made clear that Iran’s rulers are preparing for unrest even as no fresh nationwide protests have emerged. The choice of Hossein Taeb, a veteran intelligence chief who has overseen major crackdowns on protests, to lead the Basij volunteer force is being viewed as a particularly strong warning to potential dissenters.
Tehran warns of a wider confrontation
Iran’s new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, has adopted a defiant tone towards Washington.“If (Trump) wants to do something, we will retaliate in a seismic manner,” Rezaei said last weekend. In a post on X, he warned that “if the economic war continues, not a single drop of oil will be exported” from the Persian Gulf.His remarks came as Iran faces the prospect of further US military action. Tehran has little faith in reaching a lasting agreement with Trump after coming under attack twice while negotiations were under way. Iranian officials are also believed to be preparing for another possible assault once Washington replenishes its stocks of missile interceptors.The threat of escalation comes alongside an increasingly severe economic squeeze. The US blockade and planned sanctions risk further damaging an economy already struggling with the impact of the war.Rezaei has nevertheless left the door open to negotiations, but only if Washington changes course. On Monday, he told Pakistani mediator Gen. Asim Munir that the US should “change its attitude and take practical action about implementing the conditions” of the ceasefire deal.
Hardliners tighten grip around new supreme leader
Rezaei’s appointment was part of a wider reshuffle ordered by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who has been consolidating his leadership after the death of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.The elder Khamenei, who had led Iran for about 37 years, was killed in US and Israeli strikes launched on February 28. Much of Iran’s senior leadership was also killed in the bombing campaign.The younger Khamenei, 56, has not appeared publicly or been heard in video or audio since the strikes. He is believed to have been wounded. His continued absence could reflect the extraordinary security measures around him, given that he is likely to remain an Israeli target, or the severity of his injuries.His first major appointments suggest that he is relying heavily on a group of longstanding military and security allies.Rezaei, 71, commanded the Revolutionary Guard during much of its formative period, including the 1980-1988 war with Iraq, and remained in the post until 1997. He has also contested Iran’s presidential election several times as a hard-line candidate.Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, 68, has been confirmed as head of the Revolutionary Guard after serving as acting commander since his predecessor was killed alongside the elder Khamenei. Gen. Ali Ozmaei and Gen. Ali Abdollahi have also been confirmed in senior military positions.Sascha Bruchmann, an analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Middle East office in Bahrain, described the appointments as evidence of an effort to maintain unity at the top.“They are a clique of older senior officers who’ve served together over the last decades,” Bruchmann said.“ It looks like internal cohesion, as in hard core people are being pulled into the inner circle,” he said.
Taeb appointment sends warning on dissent
Perhaps the clearest indication of Tehran’s domestic priorities is the appointment of Taeb as head of the Basij, the Revolutionary Guard’s volunteer street force.The 63-year-old cleric has a long record of suppressing protests. He led the Basij during the mass demonstrations that followed the disputed 2009 re-election of hard-line president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, when dozens of people were killed.Taeb was later appointed head of the Revolutionary Guard’s intelligence organisation, a position he held for nearly 13 years before being removed in 2022. His departure reportedly followed a shake-up prompted by Israeli espionage successes.The Basij operates a nationwide network of volunteers with a presence in streets, government offices and cultural centres. Its role is to reinforce loyalty to Iran’s theocratic system and promote what the leadership describes as ideological purity.Taeb’s return to a frontline security position suggests that Tehran is preparing to confront discontent before it develops into another mass movement.“Putting someone from an intelligence background in charge of the people that would do the crackdown makes sense,” Bruchmann said.The Basij expanded its presence during the war, while hard-liners have staged nightly rallies in Tehran and other cities. The gatherings have sought to demonstrate support for the government and intimidate potential opponents.In his appointment decree, Khamenei ordered Taeb to expand the Basij’s presence in Iranian social life, make greater use of new technologies and “promote the Basij across the world against Zionist-American arrogance”. The wording could also point to a greater role for the force in building links with Iran’s overseas allies and proxies.Taeb has also warned that US economic pressure is designed to divide Iranian society.“If the mosque becomes the center of the neighborhood, the nation will protect its unity, which will be a greater deterrent than any missile.”
Economic crisis exposes divisions inside Iran
The leadership’s increasingly hard-line posture comes as ordinary Iranians struggle with the economic consequences of the war.There has so far been no clear sign of a new nationwide protest movement, despite growing difficulties in affording basic goods. But the worsening economic situation has exposed differences within the political establishment over how far Iran should continue confronting Washington.President Masoud Pezeshkian remains one of the most prominent voices advocating a negotiated settlement. His allies have argued that Tehran risks weakening itself by prolonging the conflict while its economy deteriorates.“It would be better to bring the war to an end, since today we enjoy power and dignity and the entire world approved our victory, and the U.S. is hated,” Pezeshkian said last week.He has also defended the June ceasefire agreement, rejecting accusations from hard-liners that it gave away too much.The ceasefire quickly collapsed as the US, Israel and Iran resumed exchanges of strikes. Tehran has since demanded the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets under the agreement, along with formal authority over the Strait of Hormuz.Homayoun Falakshahi, the top oil analyst for global commerce information firm Kpler, said the latest appointments pointed to a tougher approach.The selection of Rezaei and Vahidi showed “greater influence for officials associated with a tougher stance,” he wrote.But he cautioned that escalation carries major risks for Tehran. Iran could struggle to “escalate enough to restore deterrence without triggering retaliation that leaves it worse off”.
Iran’s leadership faces a choice
The emerging power structure therefore presents a stark contrast to Trump’s early hopes that the war could help topple Iran’s Islamic Republic and bring more conciliatory figures to power.Instead, six months of conflict have strengthened the influence of officials with decades of experience in Iran’s military and security establishment.Tehran’s leaders appear determined to maintain confrontation with Washington while ensuring that economic hardship does not translate into political unrest.The result is a leadership that is simultaneously preparing for another possible US attack, threatening retaliation and reinforcing the machinery used to suppress domestic opposition.Tehran-based political analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi said there are “serious differences over the future path of the country”.Hard-liners oppose normalisation with the US because “their survival depends on the existence of conflict and hostility,” he wrote in the newspaper Hammihan, which supports Pezeshkian.For now, the balance of power appears to favour those advocating resistance rather than compromise. Iran’s new leadership is signalling that it will not easily yield to US demands abroad, while showing that dissent at home will face an equally uncompromising response.
