By laying out U.S. arms sales to Taiwan as a bargaining chip with China, President Trump has handed a gift to China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in his efforts to undermine the Taiwanese government.
On Monday, China’s state media used Mr. Trump’s comments to send a message at home and to Taiwan: that the United States cannot be relied on to defend Taiwan, the island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory.
President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan, a frequent target of Beijing’s vitriol, and his Democratic Progressive Party can no longer rely on “unconditional indulgence” from the United States, said the Global Times, a Chinese newspaper, citing a Chinese researcher.
“Security cannot be bought with military purchases; if you become a pawn, you will only be squeezed dry,” said Col. Jiang Bin, a spokesman for China’s Ministry of National Defense, on Monday, referring to Taiwan.
The American president’s comments had been released over the weekend, after Mr. Trump left a summit with Mr. Xi in Beijing on Friday. He said he was keeping on hold a decision about a package of weapons to Taiwan worth around $14 billion, and described it as a “very good negotiating chip” that could be used with Beijing.
“I’m holding that in abeyance and it depends on China,” he said in an interview with Fox News. It was not immediately clear what Mr. Trump wanted China to do in return.
Pressure on Iran?
The United States went into the summit hoping to persuade China to do more to get Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Mr. Trump later said he had discussed Iran with Mr. Xi but the details of their discussions have not emerged.
China has pushed Iran to negotiate with the United States, and has called for the Strait of Hormuz to be open.
But Beijing has strong strategic reasons to avoid siding explicitly with the United States and Israel against Iran, its partner in the Middle East, in a war it has repeatedly said should not have happened.
Even if China were willing to use its influence over Tehran, it would not want it to be seen as an explicit quid pro quo for U.S. concessions on Taiwan, said Bao Chengke, a researcher of Shanghai Cross-Strait Research Association, an organization in Shanghai.
“He tends to act like a businessman, understanding issues through the lens of deal-making,” Mr. Bao said of Mr. Trump. “But tying the two issues so tightly together really isn’t feasible.”
More Purchases of U.S. Goods?
If Mr. Trump were to suspend the $14 billion package, or scale back the number and sophistication of the weapons, China could respond in a few ways, said Xin Qiang, the director of the Center for Taiwan Studies at Fudan University.
For instance, China could buy more American farm produce and Boeing planes, Professor Xin said.
President Trump and Boeing have already said that China had agreed to order 200 of the company’s planes. The Trump administration also said on Sunday that China had agreed to “purchase at least $17 billion per year of U.S. agricultural products” in 2026, 2027 and 2028, though the amount this year would be prorated.
Beijing’s official position is that Taiwan is a domestic issue and any continued U.S. arms sales to the island are unacceptable. But it can be pragmatic, too, Mr. Xin said.
“China has never wanted to treat arms sales to Taiwan as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the United States,” he said. “But realistically, any issue can in essence become a bargaining chip in the course of international relations or great power competition.”
A Messaging Win for Beijing
In some ways, Beijing has already benefited from Mr. Trump’s gambit.
Mr. Trump’s remarks suggested he had partly absorbed China’s depiction of Mr. Lai as a dangerous separatist seeking to lead the United States to war. (Mr. Lai and his government say Taiwan is in reality already independent, and that it is Beijing that is the aggressor.)
Mr. Trump also questioned whether the United States could successfully come to Taiwan’s defense in a war. “I’m not looking to have somebody go independent and, you know, we’re supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war,” he said.
Minxin Pei, a professor at Claremont McKenna College who studies Chinese leadership politics, said: “I think Xi Jinping believes he succeeded in one respect in this summit — that is, in educating Trump on Taiwan.”
“In the view of Chinese people, Trump’s comments on the Taiwan issue are a massive breakthrough,” said Wang Wen, a former Chinese journalist in Beijing who is now a professor at Renmin University in Beijing.
Beijing can gain some advantage simply if Mr. Trump puts off any approval for long enough, some analysts said.
“The question is whether the pending $14 billion sale is delayed for weeks, months, or longer,” said Craig Singleton, the China Program senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington. “A prolonged hold, especially one shaped by Beijing’s objections, would raise much more serious concerns about the reliability of U.S. deterrence.”
Trouble for Taiwan?
Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Nationalist Party, which supports closer ties with China, has seized on this moment to argue that President Lai has pushed the island into a dangerous bind — distrusted by Beijing, unable to rely on Washington.
“I believe the Trump-Xi summit represents a turning point for Taiwan,” Su Chi, a former senior official who had worked under Nationalist Party administrations, said at a forum in Taipei. “Our big brother, America, I’m sorry, he has too many problems right now and simply cannot take care of us here.”
Mr. Lai and his officials have argued that Mr. Trump’s comments do not shift relations. They have pointed to parts of Mr. Trump’s comments, including that “nothing’s changed” on policy toward Taiwan. They have also pointed to comments from Trump administration officials, including Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, that policy on Taiwan is unchanged.
“I don’t think the Taiwanese public needs to worry,” Chen Ming-chi, a Taiwanese deputy minister of foreign affairs, told reporters. “I believe the United States security commitments to us and our bilateral economic and trade relations are being maintained just as before.”
Berry Wang contributed reporting from Hong Kong.
