By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
There is a full slate of five conference games in the Mountain West this week.
The standings show a bit of a logjam. UNLV and New Mexico remain unbeaten, but six of the ten teams currently sit with just one loss.
This week should provide a bit of separation but could also muddle things up even more. Especially if Air Force can knock off UNLV and add to the one-loss logjam.
Here is a look at the Mountain West games this week.
Northern Illinois Huskies at Wyoming Cowboys
Saturday, October 17
12:30 PM PT, CW
The Cowboys sit at 2-1 in conference play and look like a surprising success story so far this season.
Certainly, expectations were not high for the program for anyone outside of the athletic department, but by all accounts UW has looked better than expected—for the most part.
The offense has still been tremendously bad, but the defense has played quite well.
On the bright side, this week just might be a chance for the offense to finally shine a bit. Northern Illinois has allowed at least 28 points in every game they have played this season.
The Huskies have allowed 211.4 rushing yards per game, ranking 130th in the nation against the run. Last week they allowed Air Force to run for 439 yards.
Yes, that was the Air Force ground attack, but 439! Come on, it is hard to allow that many yards in a game.
As bad as the Cowboys have been offensively, the ground attack has shown some signs of life.
Tyler Hughes is coming off a solid game running the ball against San Jose State, and the dual backs of Tote Harris and Markell Holman can produce if given space to run. They should have plenty of room to run in this one.
Offensively, NIU has failed to score more than 17 points against an FBS opponent. This is an offense that Wyoming should be able to contain even if the offense fails to produce much.
The Cowboys are more than comfortable committing to the run, and they should be able to control things with relative ease in this one.
UNLV Rebels at Air Force Falcons
Saturday, October 17
12:30 PM PT, CBSSN
UNLV played a slugfest last week, getting the 13-7 win over North Dakota State; that was a big one in the conference race. The Rebels could be in for another one this week.
At 2-0, UNLV sits atop the standings in the conference, but the Falcons are looming just behind them at 2-1, and with Air Force, you know you are in for a physical showdown.
It is no secret the Falcons are going to run the ball; they are second in the nation, going for 325.6 yards per game. Air Force ran all over NIU last week with ease.
The Falcons attempted just one pass in the win while running for 439 yards. The Rebels will be a much stiffer test this week, but good rushing teams have run the ball on UNLV this season.
Against Memphis, North Texas and NDSU, the Rebels allowed 184.7 yards per game on the ground. UNLV went 1-2 in those games. Slowing down the Falcons’ ground game must be priority one for the UNLV defense but is far easier said than done.
The injury to Liam Szarka did not slow down the Air Force attack last week, and Evan Medders and Kemper Hodges orchestrated the ground game to perfection. This week we should get a better indication of the impact of that loss.
You would think the Falcons would need to put it in the air a bit in this one to keep the Rebels off guard.
The Falcons are one of the better defensive units in the Mountain West, but so is NDSU and UNLV found a way to get the win in that one. Mostly due to the play of the defense and forcing turnovers.
You’d be hard-pressed to see Air Force turn it over three times in this one.
Jackson Arnold has been careful with the ball this season, throwing only one interception; he has also been productive on the ground.
I like the Falcons to get the win in this one at home in a game they must win if they intend to challenge for the conference crown.
Nevada Wolf Pack at North Dakota State Bison
Saturday, October 17
4:00 PM PT, CBSSN
Nevada is making the trip to the Fargodome with the Bison coming off their first loss as a MW member.
The defensive slugfest in Vegas went south for the Bison due to turnovers. Specifically, three costly interceptions thrown by Nathan Hayes, including one that went for six.
The Bison were also woefully bad on third down in that one. Despite all that, they were in it with a chance to win on the road against one of the better teams in the league. The Bison can play about as bad as possible and still hang with the cream of the crop.
This week, NDSU will not need to be perfect to win, and while the turnovers and third-down issues will cost you against anyone, this week they should be able to get back into the win column.
Nevada has shown flashes of good play. In the wins over Western Kentucky and last week against UTEP, the Pack have proven they have been able to move the ball on offense this season.
The problem is putting it all together consistently…and more importantly, stopping other teams.
Last week Nevada kept the UTEP offense contained, but that might have had more to do with the Miners than the Wolf Pack. Nevada has given up a lot of yards on the ground this season, and the Bison should have no trouble running the ball in this one.
While the Wolf Pack have looked pretty good running the ball this season, the passing game has been really bad. The Bison are far too good a team to be one-dimensional and hope to get a win.
If Nevada can’t get some threat of the pass working in this one, it will be a long day. Unless they can force a ton of turnovers and get NDSU on 70% of their third downs.
San Jose State Spartans at UTEP Miners
Saturday, October 17
6:00 PM PT, MW+
San Jose State visits the Sun Bowl in a matchup of a pair of teams needing a win. UTEP is winless in their two conference games, while the Spartans have a win over Hawai’i but fell last week to Wyoming.
The Miners have allowed 45.5 points per game in their two MW losses; the defense has allowed 30+ in all five of their games against FBS foes.
That should be good news for the Spartans. San Jose State has been inconsistent with the ball this season and has seen far too many drives stall.
This was particularly problematic last week in the OT loss to the Cowboys. The Spartans were just 4 out of 12 on third downs last week and rank 114th in the nation this season with a success rate of 32.5%.
UTEP could provide the elixir for the Spartans, as they are 132nd nationally at getting teams off the field on third downs. Opponents are converting on an astounding 48.7% this season.
(Proof of NIU’s struggles this season: they are dead last—138th, allowing 63.5%—15 points the other way, and UTEP would be 32.7%, ranked 32nd ).
The point is, in this one, SJSU should be able to sustain drives.
For Scotty Walden’s UTEP squad, it comes down to the offense not being able to mount anything substantial. The short drives are killing UTEP and taxing the heck out of the defense.
The first six drives against Nevada and eight of the first nine drives were three-and-outs. That has been the problem all season long, and UTEP needs to get it figured out.
The Spartans have been decent on defense this season but have been prone to giving up chunks of yardage. Raymond Moore will need to connect on his passes and extend some plays with his legs.
In the end, I think Luke Weaver and the Spartans do too much on offense, and the UTEP woes continue. The Spartans win and pull away from a tired Miner defense in the end.
New Mexico Lobos at Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
Saturday, October 17
7:30 PM PT, FS1
What could have been with this matchup. This could have been a pivotal game in the MW race, and perhaps the result could have even had an impact on the national stage.
The Lobos have certainly done their part this season; the Rainbow Warriors, on the other hand, have not.
UH limps into this one 1-5 with penalties, turnovers, and red-zone woes to blame for the putrid start. Those things will be problematic against any team, but will signal quick doom against a very good team like New Mexico.
The Lobos are among the best in the nation at denying scores in the red zone, while the ‘Bows are 132nd in the nation with points on just 65% of their trips inside the 20.
UNM is 10th in the nation in total defense, limiting opponents to just 255.6 yards per outing. This is not the game for Hawai’i to get their offense on track.
Hawai’i has struggled to stop the run this season, and that does not bode well for them in this one. Last week ASU ran the ball at a clip of 7.7 yards per carry against the Warriors.
The ground game of New Mexico should have no trouble getting things going. Look for Scottre Humphrey to have a big game and the Lobos to run for north of 200 yards as a team in this one as they continue to win.
writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).
