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People move across an inundated area after monsoon rains in Prayagraj on August 31, 2026.
| Photo Credit: PTI
India is likely to experience below-normal rainfall in September, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday (August 31, 2026) forecasting rainfall across the country to be at least 9% short of the long-period average of 167.9 mm. This comes after India experienced the hottest August since 1901.
Many parts of the country are expected to remain drier than normal, although parts of northwest, northeast, east, east-central India and isolated areas of southeast peninsular India could receive “normal to above-normal rainfall”.
September brings in about a fifth of the June-September monsoon rain, less than July’s 32% and August’s 29%. In recent years, September rainfall has seen a relative uptick. As of August 31, India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall was about 14% below normal, with central India in surplus but the northwest, east and northeast, and south peninsula all recording deficits. The shortfall was particularly pronounced in the east and northeast, and in the southern peninsula.
IMD’s outlook at a press briefing comes on the back of a dry August. India received 213.3 mm of rain in August, the seventh-lowest since 2001. The country’s mean temperature reached 28.01°C, or about 0.67°C above normal. The average minimum temperature, at 24.36°C, was also the highest on record.
IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra explained this as a consequence of the ongoing El Niño, which dries out the atmosphere and raises temperatures. However, the month was not uniformly dry, with repeated low-pressure systems bringing heavy rain across the Indo-Gangetic Plains and parts of central and eastern India.
For September, the IMD expects above-normal maximum temperatures over most of India and above-normal minimum temperatures over most areas, adding to the prospect of a warm, relatively dry end to the monsoon.
Four low-pressure systems, precursors to cyclonic storms and, in the Indian context, mostly originating in the Bay of Bengal, persisted for a combined 26 days in August. This is substantially longer than the climatological average of 16.3 low-pressure days. However, their rainfall activity was largely confined to the Indo-Gangetic Plain. The systems repeatedly formed over the Bay of Bengal, moved west-northwest, and weakened over central and northern India.
Frequent Western Disturbances – extra-tropical storms originating in the Mediterranean – also interacted with the monsoon circulation and low-pressure or cyclonic circulations, helping concentrate intense rainfall over eastern, east-central and parts of northwestern India rather than producing a more widespread monsoon revival.
The IMD’smodels indicate that El Niño conditions are likely to intensify during the remainder of the 2026 southwest monsoon season.
The IMD’s July 31 outlook for August had indicated “below-normal” rainfall over much of the country, and said this “matched” observations over many regions. The significant misses were over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and southeast peninsular India, where rainfall was higher than the forecast suggested, on the back of persistent ‘low pressure’ systems.
Published – August 31, 2026 10:37 pm IST