By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
The Big Ten is in full conference mode this week with eight conference matchups on the schedule.
Out west, the load is light with USC hosting Washington.
UCLA and Oregon both enjoy the week off ahead of their ranked matchup in Eugene next week.
The league slate gets underway on Friday evening in Evanston as Northwestern opens their new $850 million home.
Here is our look at this week’s Big Ten action.
Northwestern Wildcats at Penn State Nittany Lions
Friday, October 1
5:00 PM PT, FOX
(Connor Onion, Robert Griffin III, and Alexa Landestoy)
Line: Penn State –2.5
Over/Under: 45.5
It will be quite a show in Evanston on Friday night as the Wildcats open up new Ryan Field against Penn State.
The crowd should be electric, filled mostly with fans rooting for the home team. This week, I think Northwestern certainly will be “Chicago’s Big Ten Team.”
All of that has the smell of an upset. Oh, but the Cats played so well last week at Indiana, and the next day Penn State fell victim to an upset at the hands of Wisconsin.
Surely, PSU will not enter this one overlooking the Wildcats? They will not, and it will not matter.
Northwestern plays good defense; they do not turn the ball over.
And Aidan Chiles is finally playing at the level we were all looking for when he was just a 17-year-old starting for Oregon State. Under the tutelage of Chip Kelly and Jerry Neuheisel, Chiles appears to be thriving.
David Braun has his defense making a ton of plays, and the Cats will not be pushed around at the line of scrimmage on either side of the ball.
Northwestern opens their new digs in style.
Winner: Northwestern
ATS: Northwestern
O/U: Under
Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Saturday, October 2
9:00 AM PT, FOX
(Gus Johnson, Joel Klatt, and Jenny Taft)
Line: Michigan –5.5
Over/Under: 43.5
The Gophers and Wolverines will tangle for the 107th time when they meet in Minneapolis on Saturday. And for the 100th time, the winner will leave with the Little Brown Jug.
Minnesota is riding some momentum after their win on the road at Washington last week. Michigan, on the other hand, is reeling a bit after their last-second loss at home to Iowa.
Both teams will play solid defense, and this one is not going to wear out the scoreboard lights.
The Gophers seem to have more on offense than Michigan does, and Drake Lindsey gives Minnesota a clear edge at the QB spot, in my opinion. The Gopher QB does not offer a ton of flash, but he wins games.
The second-year QB is 11-6 as a starter, a win percentage of .647 which would is the best ever for a Minnesota QB. He also is smart with the ball and makes plays when needed.
Lindsey has accounted for 3+ TDs in each of the last two games and should be able to produce enough against Michigan.
Bryce Underwood is great on the underneath throws for Michigan but has been shaky under pressure this season. Minnesota got to Demond Williams seven times last week.
The blueprint will be the same this week, and it could cause issues for Michigan.
In a game that should be tight, special teams could play a big role and no team in the nation has done a better job of flipping the field than Minnesota.
The Gophers offensive starting field position is third-best in the nation while their opponents starting field position is second nationally.
The Gophers have only claimed the Jug 23 times; it will be 24 after this week.
Winner: Minnesota
ATS: Minnesota
O/U: Over
Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes
Saturday, October 2
12:30 PM PT, CBS
(Brad Nessler, Charles Davis, and Jenny Dell)
Line: Ohio State –14.5
Over/Under: 45.5
Ohio State is coming off a game in which they dominated Illinois while Iowa is coming off a win at Michigan.
Iowa’s defense is as good as it always is, ranking 10th in total defense and 12th against the pass. That passing defense will get tested this week in ways it has not been tested yet.
And most of that will be in the form of Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes’ WR has already racked up 33 receptions this season for 617 yards and seven scores.
That yardage total is 32 more than the next closest player this season (Oregon State’s Jesse Legree ranks second with 585). Smith is simply that good and can take over a game on his own. He will be a matchup problem for Iowa.
Plus, it is not like you can key on one thing against this OSU offense; Bo Jackson and Ja’Kobi Jackson both run the ball pretty well too.
If Iowa can limit the Bucks’ offensive output, they will have a chance.
But they will need to produce on offense, and while the Hawkeyes look much more competent on offense this season. They still are not going to win in a shootout with OSU.
Iowa will look to move the ball on the ground, and thus far this season the Buckeyes have not been nearly as stout up front against the ground game as in past seasons.
Ohio State wins this one, but the Hawkeyes will be able to move the ball on them.
Winner: Ohio State
ATS: Iowa
O/U: Over
Maryland Terrapins at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Saturday, October 2
1:00 PM PT, FS1
(Dan Hellie and Robert Smith)
Line: Nebraska 14.5
Over/Under: 52.5
Nebraska is 4-0 and looks like they might finally be ready to turn the corner under Matt Rhule.
For Maryland, it looks like more of the same, and the clock might be ticking on Mike Locksley’s time in College Park.
The Huskers’ offense is clicking behind Anthony Colandrea, as the QB is making plays through the air as well as with his legs. Nebraska should have no trouble moving the ball on Maryland this week.
Last week UCLA’s offense had a field day against the Terrapins, and I’d expect nothing different this week.
The shocking issue with Maryland last week was on offense.
Maryland was unable to mount anything close to a competent offense in the loss to UCLA, amassing just 181 total yards at 2.62 yards per play while turning it over five times.
Now UMD has to face a Huskers defense coming off a five-sack performance against Michigan State.
The Big Ten losing streak now sits at nine games as the Terps have not won a conference game in over a calendar year. That streak reaches double digits this week as this one gets ugly in a hurry.
Winner: Nebraska
ATS: Nebraska
O/U: Over
Washington Huskies at USC Trojans
Saturday, October 2
4:30 PM PT, NBC
(Noah Eagle, Todd Blackledge, and Kathryn Tappen)
Line: USC –9.5
Over/Under: 58.5
Washington had the schedule set up for them to make a lot of noise this season. This was to be the hurdle before a stretch run of wins prior to the late-season tests in the last two weeks of the season.
Then Minnesota happened.
USC was rolling through the month of September and set for this to be the year Lincoln Riley, and the Trojans broke through with a playoff run.
Then Oregon happened.
For both the Huskies and Trojans, the setbacks last week were tough, but they do not need to define the season.
For Washington, it is also the first game outside of Seattle this season.
Demond Williams Jr. has been the Huskies’ offense this season with the running backs banged up.
Williams has developed a connection with Dezmen Roebuck, and the young WR continues to impress with 30 receptions for 308 yards already.
The problem for UW might be that Williams has had to do too much, as he is also their leading rusher. No matter how good your QB is, it is generally not a good sign if he is the team’s leading rusher.
UW is 17th in the Big Ten, running for just 107.3 yards per game and just 3.7 yards per rush.
Last week, Minnesota was able to exploit that as they turned up the heat on Williams and got to him seven times.
This was a Gopher team that had four sacks in their first three games, and two of those were against Eastern Illinois and Akron.
If you don’t have to worry about the run game, it is easy to pin your ears back and get after the QB.
USC has had some defensive issues of their own the last three games, allowing 35.3 points per outing against Oregon, Rutgers, and Louisiana.
The Ducks, sure, but Rutgers and Louisiana are not exactly offensive juggernauts.
So, this one is going to be strength on strength, with a good Washington defense tasked with stopping an explosive USC offense.
Alex McLaughlin and Jacob Manu have been among the best Big Ten defenders this season, but they will have their hands full limiting the Trojans.
USC was forced to get away from the run game a bit against Oregon, and the Ducks took some things away.
If the Trojans can stay balanced and get King Miller and Waymond Jordan going early, it will open things up for Jayden Maiava.
USC rebounds and gets the win at home
Winner: USC
ATS: USC
O/U: Over
Indiana Hoosiers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Saturday, October 2
5:00 PM PT, BTN
(Mark Followill, Rhett Lewis, and Caroline Hendershot)
Line: Indiana –24
Over/Under: 55.5
Indiana heads to Piscataway with the nation’s longest win streak. The 20-game win streak is also the third longest by a Big Ten team since 1980.
Rutgers is looking for its first win over a ranked opponent since 2009 and first over a Top 10 foe since 2007.
On the bright side, the 35 points Rutgers scored against USC were their most vs. a ranked opponent since 2008. On the not-so-bright side, Indiana’s defense is probably significantly better than USC’s.
Indiana had some struggles against Northwestern last week. The offense was far from perfect, and the defense had a difficult time containing Aidan Chiles.
Offensively, they can easily clean things up while the defensive issues might have had more to do with the Wildcats QB than anything else.
The Hoosiers got plenty of pressure; Chiles just made plays and extended things with his legs.
If there is a bright spot for the Knights on offense, it has been the play of WR KJ Duff.
If there has been an issue for the Indiana defense this season, it has been getting beat in the secondary.
If Rutgers can keep the pocket clean, they should be able to hit on a couple of big plays.
The Indiana defense will limit the Knights’ offense, and on the other side of the ball I’d expect the Hoosiers O-line to create a ton of holes for Lee Beebe to run through.
IU is rushing for 233.5 yards per game, and even a banged-up RB room should be able to shred the RU defense.
The Indiana win streak continues.
Winner: Indiana
ATS: Indiana
O/U: Under
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writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).