The United States is moving closer to a potential military confrontation with Iran, even as diplomatic efforts over Tehran’s nuclear programme falter. According to The New York Times and news agency Reuters, President Donald Trump is weighing options ranging from limited strikes to broader action, amid a sweeping US military deployment in the Middle East
In January, Trump said a US “armada” was heading toward Iran, comparing it to the swift American operation in Venezuela that he described as able to fulfill its mission “with speed and violence”. But experts caution that Iran presents a far more complex challenge than Venezuela, with greater military depth and the capacity to trigger a regional war.
No ‘clean’ military option
Citing analysts’ warnings, The New York Times reported there is “no low-cost, easy, clean military option” in the case of Iran. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group told the paper there is a “real risk” of American casualties, a factor likely to weigh heavily on Trump, particularly in an election year.
Iran possesses one of the Middle East’s largest and most diverse missile stockpiles, including medium-range ballistic missiles capable of travelling over 1,200 miles, putting US bases in the Gulf, Israel and even parts of Turkey within reach.
Iranian state media recently reported the testing of a sea-based air-defence missile with a range of over 93 miles during drills in the Strait of Hormuz.
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Sanam Vakil of Chatham House told the Times that Tehran’s strategy is to “quickly escalate and export instability in multiple theatres,” spreading the cost and pain of any confrontation.
Proxy networks and regional fallout
Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance”, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, adds another layer of risk. Although several of these groups have been weakened, they retain the capacity to retaliate against US forces and allies, potentially opening multiple fronts.
At least one Iran-aligned group in Iraq has pledged support for Tehran in the event of US action, warning of possible “martyrdom operations”.
The Houthis could also resume targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea, as they did in late 2023.
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Meanwhile, Gulf states hosting American bases are bracing for blowback. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates said in January they would not allow their airspace to be used for US attacks, though analysts caution that this may not shield them from Iranian retaliation.
Hopes for diplomacy are fading
A parallel Reuters analysis reported that hopes for diplomacy are fading as US military deployments in the region reach their largest scale since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Two rounds of Iran-US talks have stalled over uranium enrichment, missile programmes and sanctions relief. According to Reuters, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi refused to open a US proposal related to missiles, returning it unopened.
Although Iran is expected to submit a counterproposal, Trump has warned that failure to reach a deal could lead to “really bad things”.
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Trump acknowledged he is considering a limited strike to pressure Iran into a settlement.
US officials, cited by Reuters, said the timing of any action remains unclear, with full military deployment expected by mid-March.
What is the endgame?
Reuters reported that European and regional officials are uncertain about Washington’s ultimate objective, whether strikes would aim merely to degrade Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, deter escalation, or pursue regime change.
Iran’s political structure complicates any decapitation strategy. Unlike Venezuela, where President Nicolás Maduro was captured in a rapid raid, Iran’s theocratic system centres on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and is reinforced by the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
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Analysts warn that assuming military action could trigger regime change may be perilous.
Global economic shockwaves
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical pressure point. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows through the narrow waterway. Iran has previously threatened to close it, a move that would send energy prices soaring.
While such a move would also damage Iran’s own oil exports, experts warn that even limited disruption could destabilise global markets.
A narrowing window
As both sides hold firm to red lines, Washington demanding zero enrichment and Tehran insisting on sovereign nuclear rights, the risk of miscalculation grows. Reuters quotes former US diplomat Alan Eyre as saying meaningful progress is unlikely unless both sides retreat from their positions, something he doubts will happen.
With military assets moving into place and rhetoric hardening, the US-Iran standoff appears to be entering a decisive phase, one where the costs of escalation could extend far beyond the battlefield.
