Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited New Delhi this week to reassure India of its importance, but analysts mostly saw the trip as little more than a salve applied to deep wounds inflicted by the Trump administration’s policies on trade and immigration, and the war in Iran.
President Trump’s blow-hot, blow-cold approach to India is a stark contrast from that of previous U.S. presidents, who sought to maintain good relations with India. India needs civil and stable ties with the United States, its biggest export market, and doesn’t want to attract the ire of Mr. Trump, which could disrupt its economy or jeopardize its ability to meet its enormous energy needs.
India, which imports 90 percent of its crude oil, had come under pressure last summer after Mr. Trump slapped a punitive 25 percent tariff on India for buying Russian oil. It was lifted in February after India agreed to limit purchases of Russian oil. The Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz also greatly reduced India’s access to oil, prompting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to ask his fellow Indians to work from home to save fuel.
The main issue is a “lack of consistency that we have seen in the Trump administration’s engagement with India and a lack of a public commitment to this relationship,” said Harsh V. Pant, a visiting professor of international relations at King’s College London.
Mr. Trump has upended many of India’s assumptions about the nature of its relationship with the United States: The bedrock was an economic partnership, with a marginal role for Pakistan and cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. Mr. Trump’s tariffs, his close relationship with Pakistan’s leaders and his seeming desire to cultivate stronger ties with China have called all of those assumptions into question.
That has left India without a framework for engagement, Mr. Pant said.
Mr. Trump’s recent meeting with President Xi Jinping of China has added to India’s worries about its place in U.S. foreign policy. Several U.S. administrations maintained ties with India, the world’s most populous country and one of its fastest-growing economies, because they saw it as a counterweight to China. India was happy to play that role, especially under Mr. Modi, who had cultivated a close relationship with Mr. Trump in his first term in office.
India is concerned that it would lose its value to the United States and become dispensable once the U.S. relationship with China stabilizes, said Constantino Xavier, an expert on South Asia at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress, a research institute based in New Delhi.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi’s meeting might not lead to anything, Mr. Xavier said, but it has made Indian officials anxious about becoming the U.S. president’s “backup plan,” to be used as a tool to threaten China when he wants. “The dispensability is increasing, and the utility is decreasing,” he said.
Mr. Rubio insisted during his visit that India was one of America’s “most strategic partners in the world.” Mr. Trump joined Mr. Rubio in doling out praise, dialing in live at a reception in New Delhi on Sunday to call Mr. Modi a “great friend,” and reassure India could it count on him.
“And anything India wants, they get,” Mr. Trump said.
Many Indians say they are getting the opposite of what they want. Its students and workers have been hurt by the Trump administration’s immigration restrictions. Mr. Rubio defended the policies at a news conference, insisting that they are “not a policy targeted at Indians.”
Beyond the reassuring talk, analysts said, it’s been hard to distill what India secured from America from Mr. Rubio’s visit.
“The visit was a good painkiller, but some real medicine is needed to revive the relations,” Dr. Xavier said. That medicine would involve a “fundamental political reset between both leaders,” he added, such as a visit by Mr. Trump to India or significant breakthroughs in trade and defense deals.
The two sides did sign a framework agreement to cooperate closely on securing supplies of critical minerals. And India’s commerce ministry said on Wednesday that a U.S. delegation will visit India for another round of trade talks.
In a measure of its concerns about its relationship with Washington, India has struck several partnerships with other countries, including the European Union trading bloc.
The last day of Mr. Rubio’s visit was dedicated to discussing the Quad, a group of four countries — the United States, India, Japan and Australia — intended to build maritime cooperation and ensure safe routes for commerce in the Indo-Pacific. Although it was never explicitly stated, one of the Quad’s main goals was to be a check on China’s influence in the region.
Not much appeared to materialize from this week’s daylong Quad summit. Analysts said that the group can only be functional if the United States remains an active participant. With Mr. Trump focused on his priorities in China, his level of interest in the Quad is unclear.
Pragati K.B. contributed reporting.
